Shanghai copper volatility rises Market demand is weak at the end of the month

Market focus: (1) At 2:00 Beijing time on Thursday, the Federal Reserve will announce its monetary policy decision in July; At 2:30, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will hold a press conference
.
(2) The first quantum report announced that the company's copper production in the second quarter was 169059 tons, basically the same as the same period last year, and copper sales were 159944 tons, a slight increase year-on-year, compared with 149333 tons
in the same period last year.

Spot analysis: On July 29, spot 1# electrolytic copper was quoted at 51770-51870 yuan / ton, with an average price of 51820 yuan / ton, down 170 yuan / ton
per day.
Near the end of the month, the demand is weak, but the supply of good copper is small, so that the overall premium has not continued to decline, traders want to receive the target price is low, and it is difficult to reach an agreement with the holders, and the quotation in recent days is basically in a stalemate and tug-of-war
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai copper warehouse receipts totaled 59,189 tons on Wednesday, a daily decrease of 603 tons; On July 28, LME copper stocks were 134025 tons, down 4,000 tons per day, 30 consecutive days
.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai copper main 2009 contract are 78178 lots, with a daily increase of 2644 lots, short positions of 78988 lots, a daily increase of 3940 lots, net short positions of 810 lots, a daily increase of 1296 lots, long and short increases, and net space increases
.

Market research and judgment: Shanghai copper 2009 rose on July 29
.
Rising tensions between China and the United States, as the continued spread of the global epidemic has increased uncertainty about the economic outlook; At the same time, the current market is in the seasonal off-season, downstream demand performance is weak, coupled with the impact of South American copper mine production has been digested, so that copper prices lack upward momentum
.
However, the continuation of global monetary easing and the recovery trend of the economy are conducive to the recovery of market sentiment; In addition, the current supply of copper mines is still tight, copper ore processing fees TC is at a low level, coupled with the weak price of sulfuric acid, so that the domestic refined copper smelting output is suppressed, the recent inventory in Shanghai and London has declined, and the support for copper prices still exists
.
In terms of spot, demand is weak near the end of the month, and the target price of traders to receive goods is low, and it is difficult to reach an agreement
with cargo holders for the time being.
Technically, the Shanghai copper 2009 contract continued the convergence of the shock triangle, and long-short trading tended to be cautious, and short-term shock adjustment
is expected.
In terms of operation, it is recommended to operate lightly in the range of 51300-52300 yuan / ton, and the stop loss is 200 yuan / ton
each.