Shanghai copper trend is weak, and it is expected to maintain a volatile trend next week

The LME market was closed on Monday for the holiday, and London copper was weak last week
.
The average price of LME copper in the first two trading days was 7820 US dollars / ton, down 6 US dollars / ton per day; Last week's average price was $7824.
75/ton, down 0.
07%
from the previous month.

In terms of macro, China's manufacturing industry maintained a good growth trend, and production and demand continued to improve; The EU approval of the Brexit trade deal has warmed the market; The U.
S.
president signs coronavirus relief bill and spending bill to enhance market risk appetite
.
However, the number of confirmed cases of the new crown continues to rise, and countries may implement stricter lockdown rules to contain the epidemic, which is not conducive to demand recovery
.

In the market, in the week of December 31, domestic spot copper prices fell
from a high level.
The average price of Yangtze River nonferrous metal network 1# copper was 58365 yuan / ton, down 95 yuan / ton per day, and down 0.
65% on a weekly basis; The average price of the previous week was 58252 yuan / ton, up 113 yuan / ton compared with last week, up 0.
19%
from the previous week.

In terms of stocks, London copper stocks continued to deteriorate last week, with a cumulative decrease of 6,025 metric tons to 107,950 metric tons, a cumulative decrease of 5.
29%.

Shanghai copper stocks continued to rise last week, increasing by 11,530 tons, or 15.
34%, to 86,679 tons
.

Although inventories in the previous period have rebounded, LME inventories are still declining, and global explicit inventories are still at a low level overall
.
With the advent of the traditional consumption off-season, grid consumption has reflected the characteristics of the off-season, but the resilience of home appliances and automobiles is still strong, the accumulation expectation has risen, the fundamental support may weaken, and the high copper price fell last week
.

At present, the negotiations on the China-EU Investment Agreement have been completed, deepening economic cooperation and injecting strong confidence
into economic globalization.
Fundamentally, copper concentrate and scrap supply will improve next year, although the extent may be limited, and low processing fees may limit smelter production; The global economic center of gravity is shifting to a "green recovery", and demand may recover in tandem; However, domestic inventories may enter the accumulation stage in the near future, and copper prices are expected to fluctuate next
week.