Shanghai copper shock adjustment demand performance has improved

Market focus: (1) The IMF lowered its global growth forecast for 2021 to 5.
9% from 6.
0% in July and maintained its 2022 growth forecast unchanged at 4.
9
%.
(2) U.
S.
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen insisted that the rise in inflation in the United States would prove to be "transitory," while acknowledging that the pace of price increases would take longer to return to normal
.
(3) China's imports of unwrought copper and products in September were 406016 tons, an increase of 3%
month-on-month.

Spot analysis: SMM spot 1# electrolytic copper quotation 69920-70430 yuan / ton, the average price of 70175 yuan / ton, down 210 yuan / ton
daily.

Warehouse receipt inventory: the total number of Shanghai copper warehouse receipts within the day was 10,185 tons, an increase of 151 tons per day; LME copper stocks were 191,600 tons, down 3,650 tons per day, down 11 consecutive days
.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai copper main 2111 contract 89420, +233, short positions 94290, +221, net positions -4870, +12, long and short increased, net space decreased
.

Market judgment: US Treasury Secretary Yellen insists that inflation is only temporary, but the hawkish attitude of Fed officials is still strong, and the dollar index is expected to run
strongly.
Fundamentals, labor problems in upstream South American copper mines eased, supply grew steadily, and copper concentrate processing fees continued to rise
.
Domestic refineries have a high willingness to schedule production under high profits, and the impact of power curtailment on the smelting end is small, and the output shows an increasing trend
.
However, China's copper imports rebounded in September, indicating that demand performance has improved, and domestic inventories remain low, and domestic destocking has supported copper prices, but the upward momentum is still weak
.