Shanghai copper performance is strong, the market fear of heights still exists

Market focus: (1) The General Administration of Customs of China said that the second batch of applications for tariff leveling (US$60 billion) exclusion from the United States and Canada was submitted by October 18, 2019, and the relevant applications are under review
.
The Tax Commission will continue to carry out the exclusion of goods subject to tariffs on the United States and Canada, and the list of subsequent batches of exclusions will be published
in succession.
(2) China's imports of copper ore and its concentrate in November were 2.
1569 million tons, an increase of 12.
68% month-on-month and 27.
09%
year-on-year.

Spot analysis: On December 26, SMM spot 1# electrolytic copper quotation was 49240-49400 yuan / ton, the average price was 49320 yuan / ton, a daily increase of 50 yuan / ton
.
SMM reported that the market is afraid of high copper prices, holders have a strong willingness to take the initiative to exchange cash, and holders who need to clear inventory under financial pressure are taking the initiative to dump goods, continuing to lead the decline in quotations, and the discount has expanded significantly
.
There is little willingness to receive goods downstream, and although the market has maintained the quotation status in the year-end settlement stage of enterprises, the receipt of goods has gradually entered a downturn
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai copper warehouse receipts totaled 53,480 tons on Thursday, an increase of 99 tons per day; On December 24, LME copper stocks were 149075 tons, down 2,025 tons per day, and fell for 23 consecutive days
.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai copper main 2002 contracts were 92160 lots, minus 652 lots per day, short positions were 102697 lots, daily increase of 311 lots, net short positions were 10537 lots, daily increase of 963 lots, more short increases, net short increased
.

Market research and judgment: On December 26, the main force of Shanghai copper in 2002 rushed back down
.
China's second batch of tariff exclusion applications for the United States and Canada are under review, positive developments in trade negotiations, and China's copper ore imports in November further increased, although the supply is abundant, but copper mine TC/RC prices declined, the impact of increased raw material costs will gradually appear, coupled with the continuous decline in global copper overt stocks, copper prices are strong, but the downward pressure on the global economy is greater, and the market still has doubts about the longer-term trade situation between China and the United States, limiting the upward momentum
of copper prices 。 In terms of spot, the market is afraid of high copper prices, holders have a strong willingness to take the initiative to exchange cash, and holders who need to clear inventory under financial pressure take the initiative to dump goods, and there is little
willingness to receive goods downstream.
Technically, the main 2002 contract of Shanghai copper is red cross, focusing on the 10-day moving average support, and it is expected that the short-term shock will be strong
.
Operationally, it is recommended that the Shanghai copper 2002 contract can be long around 49600 yuan / ton, and the stop loss is 49450 yuan / ton
.