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LME copper opened high on Thursday, and as of 15:00 Beijing time, the three-month London copper was reported at $6101.
5 / ton, up 0.
75%
on a daily basis.
The main 2008 contract of Shanghai copper opened low and went high, with the highest 49570 yuan / ton and the lowest 48910 yuan / ton during the day, and the closing price was 49410 yuan / ton, up 0.
12% from the closing price of the previous trading day; The trading volume was 146548 lots, with a daily decrease of 5931 lots; The position was 127983 lots, and the daily decrease was 1262 lots
.
basis 60 yuan/ton; The price difference of Shanghai copper in 2008-2009 was 40 yuan / ton
.
Market focus: (1) The ISM manufacturing PMI in the United States recorded 52.
6 in June, compared with 49.
7 and 43.
1 expected and the previous value, respectively, returning above
the boom-bust line for the first time since January.
(2) The Peruvian government said that due to the lockdown imposed to fight the new crown epidemic, the activity of the country's mining and economic sectors fell by 45.
79% in May from the same period last year, the third consecutive monthly decline
.
Peru's copper production fell by 42.
2%
in May, INEI said.
Spot analysis: On July 2, the spot 1# electrolytic copper quotation was 49410-49530 yuan / ton, the average price was 49470 yuan / ton, a daily increase of 35 yuan / ton
.
Plate strong copper price is high, inventory is increasing, market consumption is afraid of high buying is weak, market risk aversion vigilance is still high, the market is temporarily difficult to quickly digest incoming imported copper, the warehouse has recently experienced a sharp decline in daily shipments, and spot premiums may soon turn to a comprehensive discount situation in the short term
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai copper warehouse receipts totaled 36,163 tons on Thursday, a daily decrease of 624 tons; On July 1, LME copper stocks were 213325 tons, down 3,275 tons per day, down for 11 consecutive days
.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai copper main 2008 contract were 78915 lots, minus 1457 lots per day, short positions were 85687 lots, daily minus 290 lots, net short positions were 6772 lots, daily increase of 1167 lots, long and short were reduced, and net space increased
.
Market research and judgment: Shanghai copper 2008 opened low and went high on July 2
.
The global epidemic situation is still not optimistic, and the increasingly tense relationship between Canada and China and the United States has caused market worries
.
However, the supply of upstream copper mines is tightening, the impact of South American copper mine production reduction due to the epidemic is still continuing, and the upward shift in smelting costs has suppressed refined copper production; Moreover, the operating rate of domestic downstream copper enterprises remained stable, and the demand performance was stable, driving the continued dematerialization of Shanghai copper inventories, and copper prices could move strongly
.
In terms of spot, the market's risk aversion vigilance is still high, the market is temporarily difficult to quickly digest the arrival of imported copper, and the daily warehouse output has fallen
sharply recently.
Technically, the daily MACD red bar increment of the Shanghai copper 2008 contract tested the resistance at the 49700 position, and it is expected to be strong in the short term
.
Operationally, it is recommended that the Shanghai copper 2008 contract can be long at 49,000 yuan / ton at a pullback, and the stop loss is 48,800 yuan / ton
.
