Shanghai copper opened high and went high within the day and maintained a strong trend in the short term

On the macro front, the U.
S.
financial market rose across the board on Tuesday, the U.
S.
consumer confidence index rose to 125.
6 in March from 114.
8 last month, the highest since the new century, the house price index in January increased by 5.
73% annualized, strong economic data reflected the solid momentum of U.
S.
economic growth, and Trump's announcement to shift his target to tax reform and infrastructure, risk appetite rebounded, U.
S.
stocks and the dollar rebounded, and led to a collective
surge in commodities 。 At present, the economic growth of the United States has endogenous stability, but also the main logic of macro funds to long commodities, China's economic phased recovery is also relatively stable, but in the past two weeks due to the sharp tightening of real estate regulation and the degree of capital tightness, the economic expectations for the second half of the year have turned sharply short, macro factors are intertwined, commodity rally has been suppressed
.

In terms of news, China's copper raw material procurement team accepted that copper processing fees were reduced to $80 in the second quarter and $90 in the first quarter, reflecting the impact of
supply disruptions.
Production at the three major mines has so far fallen by about 200,000 tonnes, exceeding expectations at the beginning of the year, and two mines have not resumed production, with long-term production cuts expected at the Indonesian mine, and annual concentrate supply is likely to turn to shortage
.
As copper concentrate inventories remain high, concentrate tightness is not sufficient to trigger an immediate copper production cut, so it is not enough to form a leading factor in pushing up prices for the time being, but it will be a strong support when copper prices fall, and change forward copper price expectations
.

Shanghai copper rebounded, back above the 60-day moving average, although the market funds are still very tight in the last two days, traders have actively sold goods to recover funds, but downstream bargain buying is more active, spot market transactions changed last week's dullness has become active, reflecting that spot support has been reflected
.
There is also downstream stocking demand in the last days of this week, which is strongly supportive of copper prices
.
However, the capital market will be a long-term trend, with the passage of time, the cost of corporate capital will gradually rise, and the real estate purchase restrictions around the country are still increasing, this week the scope of purchase restrictions has been expanded to small cities around hot cities, so the bearish factors have not changed but further strengthened, which may limit the downstream willingness to chase higher, and change the speculative hot money bias, actively long market atmosphere is no longer
.

From the spot market, the current inventory decline rate is very slow, both cities are still in a relatively large discount state, into April consumption further recovery to help copper prices to recover, but inventory digestion pressure is still very large, do not support a big rise
.
Technically, copper prices return to above the moving average, which is expected to maintain the volatility platform since February, short-term focus on 48000-48500 pressure, low bulls suggest that they can change hands
.