Shanghai copper maintains the rebound trend in the short term, waiting for signs of the end of the rebound

In terms of external trading, this week's London copper to the US dollar, crude oil reaction blunt, early week following the domestic rally, bulls pulled London copper and the dollar together, LME copper stocks fell 4775 tons on Thursday, peak season expectations, short cover to help London copper continue to rebound
.
Throughout the week, Lun copper opened at 4640 US dollars / ton, four consecutive yang and a ride in the dust, from the previous moving average suppression to break free, the sword pointed above 4800 US dollars / ton integer pass, intraday high 4797 US dollars / ton, but the high attracted the closing of the position, the weekly increase of 3.
19%.

On the macro front, this week's macro environment lacks focus, the Fed's expectations of a year-long interest rate hike have improved during the week, the probability of a December rate hike is now as high as 72.
5%, and the dollar index has also performed strongly this week, with a high of 99.
119
this week.
Due to the strength of the US dollar, the offshore yuan depreciated to a record low of 6.
7978, down 0.
40% for the week, and the onshore yuan also fell below 6.
78, and the Shanghai ratio repaired to around 8, supporting domestic metals
.
However, the risk of capital outflow has increased, domestic funds are tight, and the central bank has invested a total of 480 billion yuan
in large net investments for four consecutive days to maintain stable funds.
In addition, this week's outbreak of black has had a driving effect on non-ferrous metals and copper prices
.
Boosted by China's coal capacity reduction policy, the black series soared collectively on Tuesday, thermal coal and coke futures touched the upper limit, igniting the enthusiasm of commodities to do long, base metals rose across the board, and strong varieties such as Shanghai aluminum and Shanghai lead and zinc were sealed at the upper limit
.

In terms of the market, at the beginning of the week, coinciding with the last delivery day of the monthly long order on the 25th, the holders of goods supported the premium, some traders were forced to accept the high premium for the long order, speculators entered the market to participate together, the market transaction was hot, and the premium was pushed up sharply to 270-350 yuan / ton
.
With the copper plate exceeding 38,000 yuan tons, the number of people selling goods at high prices has increased significantly, and a large number of goods have poured out of the market, dumping more goods, receiving less goods, and the premium has continued to fall, reaching 80-120 yuan / ton
over the weekend.
Under the high premium water and high copper prices, the downstream is afraid of heights and cautiously wait-and-see
.
And as the end of the month approached, based on the note factor, the market activity gradually shrank, and the speculation enthusiasm of middlemen decreased
.
The transaction within the week first rose and then declined, showing the characteristics of the two heavens of
ice and fire.

On the supply side, upstream mining companies are still affected this week, with the Las Bambas copper mine in Peru still blocked by union leaders, and copper output is expected to resume
in late October or early November.
Chile's tighter environmental monitoring has led to charges against Antofagasta's Los Pelambres copper mine
.
Technically, copper prices have broken through the midpoint of the convergence triangle, and the short-term rally will continue, waiting for the copper market to give signs
of the end of the rebound.