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On Monday, the main 2109 contract of Shanghai copper fluctuated and fell, with the highest 70490 yuan / ton and the lowest 69140 yuan / ton during the day, and the closing price was 69470 yuan / ton, down 0.
43% from the closing price of the previous trading day; LME copper fluctuated down, as of 15:00 Beijing time, the three-month London copper was reported at $9465 / ton, down 0.
03%
on the day.
Market focus: (1) Data released by the US Department of Labor on Friday showed that non-farm payrolls increased by 943,000 in July, and the data was revised upward to 938,000
in June.
The median expectation of economists polled was an increase of 870,000.
The unemployment rate fell to 5.
4%
in July.
(2) China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products in July amounted to 424,280.
3 tonnes, amounting to 27.
08 billion yuan
, according to data released by the General Administration of Customs on Saturday.
July imports were down from June's 428,437.
5t and well below the record high of 762,211t
set in July 2020.
Spot analysis: SMM spot 1# electrolytic copper quotation 69510-69700 yuan / ton, the average price is 69605 yuan / ton, down 165 yuan / ton
daily.
The willingness of the holders to adjust the price is not high, the receiver receives the goods at a low price, some traders leave the market to wait and see, the transaction is relatively deadlocked, and the overall transaction performance is flat
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: the total number of Shanghai copper warehouse receipts in Shanghai was 42,716 tons, a daily decrease of 1,276 tons; LME copper stocks were 234925 tonnes, down 325 tonnes
per day.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai copper main 2109 contract 66413, -565, short positions 75795, -849, net short positions 9382, -433, long and short positions are reduced
.
Market research: The US non-farm payrolls data far exceeded expectations, suggesting that the economy maintained strong momentum at the beginning of the second half of the year, and the sharp rise in the US dollar index put pressure
on metals.
On the supply side, China's copper imports fell for four consecutive months in July, mainly due to high prices, national storage, and increased copper scrap inflows, and the overall buying interest was suppressed
.
In addition, the recent rise in the risk of copper mine strikes in South America, the increase in copper mine supply disturbances, the expansion of power rationing in the southwest region of China and the tight price difference of refined waste, continue to be favorable to refined copper consumption, and strongly support the bottom of copper prices
.
However, the recent hawkish statement of the Federal Reserve, the slowdown of domestic copper inventories, the market still lacks obvious supply and demand contradictions, and short-term copper prices may be weak and volatile
.
