Shanghai copper main force low opening oscillation short-term wide oscillation

Market focus: (1) China's August CPI increased by 2.
4% year-on-year, expected to increase by 2.
4%, and the previous value increased by 2.
7%.

The August PPI fell 2% y/y versus 1.
9% expected and 2.
4%
in the previous month.
(2) SMM data, China's electrolytic copper output in August was 810,500 tons, an increase of 8.
14% month-on-month and 5.
58%
year-on-year.
(3) Peru said that electricity consumption from copper mines fell by only 0.
4% year-on-year in August, and mining production has reached pre-pandemic levels
.

Spot analysis: On September 9, the spot 1# electrolytic copper quotation was 51980-52120 yuan / ton, the average price was 52050 yuan / ton, and the daily decline was 475 yuan / ton
.
Yangtze River Nonferrous Metal reported that the cargo holders had a little price sentiment, and the downstream wait-and-see sentiment was stronger, and it was difficult to complete the transaction as
the main demand.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai copper warehouse receipts totaled 62,906 tons on Wednesday, a daily increase of 677 tons; On September 8, LME copper stocks were 76,550 tons, down 1,000 tons per day, down for 19 consecutive days
.

Main positions: The top 20 long positions of Shanghai copper main 2010 contracts were 80886 lots, minus 737 lots per day, 75191 short positions, 364 hands per day, 5695 net long positions, 373 lots per day, both long and short decreased, and net long decreased
.

Market research and judgment: Shanghai copper 2010 low opening volatility on September 9
.
The prospect of collapse in the Brexit negotiations, coupled with heightened tensions between China and the United States, has suppressed market risk sentiment; At the same time, domestic electrolytic copper production gradually rebounded, while market demand did not see significant improvement, copper enterprise operating rate in August continued to decline month-on-month, Shanghai copper inventory still increased slightly, limiting copper prices above space
.
However, China's copper mine imports fell month-on-month in August, and copper processing fees TC remained low, and raw material supply continued tightly; Coupled with the continuation of the downward trend of copper inventories and the closure of the domestic import window, the number of imported copper fell month-on-month, supporting copper prices
.
Technically, the mainstream long position reduction of the Shanghai copper 2010 contract is larger, maintaining a range operation, and it is expected to fluctuate
in a wide short-term range.
In terms of operation, it is recommended to operate in the range of 51500-52800 yuan / ton, and the stop loss is 300 yuan / ton
each.