Shanghai copper is weak in the day, and the short-term trend is in a dilemma

In terms of external trading, London copper opened at 4674 US dollars / ton during the Asian session, and the opening was driven by crude oil to rush up the 5-day moving average, briefly touching 4685.
5 US dollars / ton, unable to maintain stability and falling back to the daily moving average near the shock consolidation; Entering the European session, LME copper stocks increased by 2625 tons, bulls sharply reduced their positions, London copper low 4661.
5 US dollars / ton, touched the lower Bollinger Road track temporarily stopped, as of 17:30, London copper reported 4666 US dollars / ton
.

On the macro front, the latest US CPI in September was flat with expectations of 0.
3% month-on-month growth, and September core CPI rose 0.
1% month-on-month, less than the expected value of 0.
2%, the US dollar index was greatly affected by this, but the market is still inclined to believe that this will not change the Fed's December interest rate hike, the US dollar is still strong, and continue to put pressure
on copper prices.
In addition, China's blockbuster economic data for the third quarter, which has attracted much attention in the market, has been released, and GDP growth in the third quarter has been released, which is unchanged from the previous value, in line with market expectations, and has not brought upward momentum
to the copper market.

In terms of the market, Shanghai copper weak sorting, morning speculators into the market to receive goods, absorb low-priced sources, market trading once active, push up the current copper premium quotation, but after entering the second trading session, copper futures fell slightly, now copper premium was gradually raised, market transaction activity was immediately suppressed, flat water copper from the morning premium 100 yuan / ton to 130 yuan / ton, premium copper from 130 yuan / ton to 160 yuan / ton, downstream market entry is more cautious, to demand to receive goods, the transaction first rises and then suppresses , continue to rely on middlemen to replenish inventory
.
In the afternoon, the center of gravity of Shanghai copper continued to move down, flat water copper premium raised to 130-140 yuan / ton, good copper premium 150-160 yuan / ton, the premium remained high, the market was difficult to find a low-price source, the transaction continued to close, less than in the morning, the current copper transaction price fell slightly to 37360-37420 yuan / ton
.

In terms of industry, the International Copper Industry Group (ICSG) said that Africa and China are expected to drive global mineral capacity growth of 13% between 2016 and 2019, when the production capacity is expected to reach 22.
6Mt
.
Overall, ICSG lowered its forecast
for global copper mining capacity as most new projects were delayed until after 2019 and production was delayed and curtailed.
ICSG sees cumulative growth rates of 8% and 6%
in global copper smelting and refining capacity over the entire forecast period.
Despite weak copper prices and no improvement in consumption, copper mine production in 2016 has increased by nearly 5%
year-on-year so far.
Due to new projects and capacity expansion, Peru has become the dominant copper concentrate in the
world.
The message is empty
.

On the whole, because domestic and foreign demand is still weak, and under the strong cycle of the Fed's interest rate hike, the recent correction trend of the US dollar is only technical and temporary, so the price trend of non-ferrous metals including copper and aluminum is weak and difficult to change, and it is expected that copper prices will remain weak in the near future
.