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On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai copper 1703 basically maintained the night market rise on Friday, closing at 47950 yuan / ton, up 1.
16% on a daily basis, and the daily closing price was close to a new high in more than a month, and the current Shanghai copper effectively stabilized above the moving average group, and the rebound resistance focused on 48500 yuan / ton
.
In terms of term structure, the copper market maintained a positive arrangement of near low and far high, and the positive price difference between the Shanghai copper 1702 contract and the 1703 contract remained at 170 yuan / ton, indicating that the forward contract has a strong
willingness to rise.
Externally: Asian Lun copper oscillation slightly declined, of which the 3-month London copper slightly fell 0.
26% to 5894 US dollars / ton, but still effectively stabilized above the moving average group, the upward pattern maintained well
.
In terms of positions, on January 12, the position of London copper was 354,000 lots, a slight decrease of 701 lots per week, and in recent weeks, the position of London copper has increased and decreased, showing that long and short trading has been repeated
.
Macro: The dollar index fell slightly in the night market on Friday, and the Asian dollar index rebounded slightly to around
101.
35 on Monday.
In the past three weeks, the dollar index has accumulated a correction of 1.
63%.
In addition, US retail sales rose 0.
6% m/m in December, worse than expected an increase of 0.
7%, and market expectations for a Fed rate hike in early February declined
.
In terms of industries, Russian customs data show that Russia's copper to countries outside the CIS was 459,800 tons in January-November 2016, down from 498,200 tons
in the same period in 2015.
In terms of market: on January 16, Shanghai electrolytic copper spot traded at a discount of 50 yuan / ton - 110 yuan / ton for the monthly contract, and the trading price of flat water copper was 47550-47750 yuan / ton
.
The basis of copper in Shanghai every other month remained at 200-300 yuan / ton in the morning, the mainstream discount was 150 yuan / ton - discount 100 yuan / ton, and the flat water - premium water 100 yuan / ton line could still be maintained for the month
.
After entering the second trading session, the basis of the next month gradually narrowed to 100 yuan / ton - 200 yuan / ton, and the holders were eager to trade before the month, and the willingness to exchange cash was even greater
.
Intraday market supply pressure is large, due to the upcoming Spring Festival holiday, most of the enterprises have appeared next month's bill supply, and the current month's ticket source price difference to maintain about 50 yuan / ton, downstream this week or will be the last receiving window, the weekly receipt volume will gradually decline
.
The Shanghai copper 1703 contract oscillated to 47950 yuan / ton during the day, effectively maintaining a bullish pattern, indicating that its willingness to rise has climbed, as London copper inventories continued to decrease, China's copper imports climbed in December, and the US dollar index fell
under pressure.
In terms of operation, it is recommended that the Shanghai copper 1703 contract can be backed by 47,300 yuan / ton above the dip, the entry reference is 47800 yuan, and the target is 48500 yuan / ton
.
