Shanghai copper intraday volatility rises Long-term rally is still to be supported by market demand

Externally: Today's LME March copper volatility rose
.
The morning opened at $4779, after the opening from the lowest point of $4779 oscillated up, the morning pulse rose to a small peak after a slight pullback, the shock sorted out in midday continued to rise, the end of the day touched the highest point of $4813, the domestic trading session closed at $4809.
5
.

Macro: At Wednesday's interest rate meeting in the United States, the Fed decided to keep the dollar interest rate on
the line.
Yellen said that the current US economy continues to improve, while hinting at the possibility of a rate hike in December, and the results of the meeting were in line with market expectations
.
In China, the new loans in the first half of the year were generally highly leveraged housing loans, and the rest of the new bank loans were mainly invested in public projects and finance, while manufacturing loans had zero growth, which made the manufacturing industry develop slowly, which was very unfavorable
to China's economy in the medium and long term.
Fundamentals, due to the recent strong performance of fixed asset investment, real estate sales, automobile production and sales, etc.
, supported copper prices
.

Market: Today's Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Trading Center (formerly Trade Nonferrous Spot Market), spot copper mainly traded 37600-37680 yuan / ton in the morning, up 320 yuan from the previous working day, the premium was reported at B30-B110 yuan, down 10 from the previous working day, and the copper spot price index was reported at 37668, up 313
from the previous trading day.
Today's market supply is flat, although there are warehouse receipts began to flow out to supplement supply, but traders are bullish on premium, a small number of holding prices are high, smelters basically do not ship, some domestic brands are quoted high, traders are mainly shipped, and replenishment purchases
.
Downstream manufacturers, especially large enterprises, currently have acceptable orders, relatively active procurement, and there is also the possibility
of stocking up for manufacturers.
The afternoon premium rose slightly from the morning, good copper reported at B100-B110 yuan, flat water copper B70-B90 yuan, wet copper reported around B40-B50 yuan, in the market, traders are bullish
.

Industry: Global copper mine production from January to July was 11.
7 million mt, up 5.
9%
year-on-year.
Global refined copper production rose 3.
6% year-on-year to 13.
6 million mt.

China and Chile saw significant increases of 337,000 tonnes and 31,000 tonnes
respectively.
Global copper demand from January to July was 13.
72 million mt, compared with 12.
94 million mt
a year earlier.
From January to July, China's apparent demand rose by 521,000 tons year-on-year to 6.
736 million tons
.
EU28 production fell 2%, and demand was 2.
082 million tons, up 4.
5%
year-on-year.
In July 2016, global refined copper production was 1,972,800 tonnes and demand was 1,891,500 tonnes
.

Although the macro environment has a certain support for the copper market, but from the perspective of spot supply and demand, from January to August major smelters have increased production, so that production surged, although peak season consumption has rebounded, but the growth rate is more difficult to cover the growth rate of production, so the situation of oversupply or difficult to improve, spot supply and demand is more difficult to support this wave of copper price rise, in the medium and long term, copper prices still have a certain downside
。 Technical, from the daily K-line, the price has strong support at the 40-day moving average, the pressure of the 60-day moving average continues to weaken, and it continues to approach the upper band of BOLL, which is expected to be dominated by strong volatility in the short term, with an oscillation range of 37000-38000
.