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Today's Shanghai copper main contract 1701 contract fell into a high narrow range, trading at 48900-47400 yuan / ton during the day, and closing at 48100 yuan / ton at the end of the day, down slightly by 0.
23%
on the day.
So far, the main contract of Shanghai copper in November has risen by 25.
5%.
In terms of term structure, the positive price difference between the Shanghai copper 1612 contract and the 1701 contract widened to 40 yuan / ton, indicating that the forward contract is slightly higher in its willingness to rise
.
Externally: Asian Copper bottomed out, of which 3-month London copper edged up 0.
9% to $5867 / ton, intraday trading range of 5914-5805 US dollars / ton, close to the recent high of 6025 US dollars / ton
.
In terms of positions, on November 24, the position of London copper was 367,000 lots, a daily decrease of 486 lots, and the position of London copper increased mainly for more than a week, indicating that when the copper price oscillation was sorted, the long-short divergence increased
.
On the macro front: The Asian dollar index slipped under pressure and is now trading around 101.
4, close to the year's high of 102.
05 hit this week, as the market now has a 100%
probability of a 25 basis point Fed rate hike in December.
In addition, initial jobless claims for the week ended Nov.
19 stood at 251,000, slightly higher than the previous 43-year low of 233,000, but still at a low level, indicating that the U.
S.
labor market is doing well
.
In terms of industries, China's refined copper imports in October were 189812 tons, down 44.
74% year-on-year, and the cumulative imports from January to October were 2.
992 million tons, narrowing the year-on-year growth rate to 3.
33%.
In terms of market: on November 25, Shanghai electrolytic copper spot traded at a discount of 140-110 yuan / ton for the contract of the month, and the transaction price of flat water copper was 47510-48070 yuan / ton
.
Holders' quotations were relatively firm, slightly narrower than yesterday's discount, flat water copper and wet copper supplies were more abundant, intraday speculators lacked room to operate, and a small number of downstream began to receive goods before the weekend and copper price adjustment, and the transaction was average
.
The intraday Shanghai copper 1701 contract oscillated to stabilize to 48,100 yuan / ton, effectively maintaining the recent rebound pattern, and the rebound resistance above it focused on 50,000 yuan / ton
.
However, due to the sharp decline in refined copper imports in October, or showing that the rise in copper prices has led to a decline in domestic copper import demand, it is necessary to be vigilant in the short term about the risk of technical correction after the continuous rise in copper prices, and it is recommended that the Shanghai copper 1701 contract can be at 46500-49000 yuan / ton, with a stop loss of 800 yuan / ton
each.
