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Today's Shanghai copper main contract 1702 contract fluctuated in a narrow range, rising slightly to 46790 yuan / ton at the end of the day, up 0.
65% per day, still close to the lower edge of the oscillating platform in the past two weeks, indicating heavier
selling pressure above.
In terms of term structure, the positive price difference between the Shanghai copper 1701 contract and the 1702 contract was flat at 90 yuan/ton, indicating that the decline resistance of the forward contract declined
.
Externally: Asian market London copper continued to fluctuate in a narrow range, of which 3-month London copper edged down 0.
07% to 5742 US dollars / ton, for the third consecutive week into a high oscillation sorting, its oscillation platform lower edge focus on 5610 US dollars / ton
.
In terms of positions, on December 13, the position of London copper was 389,000 lots, an increase of 4,127 lots per day, an increase of three consecutive days, and the short-term long-short divergence increased
.
Macro: The Fed announced a 25-tone interest rate hike as scheduled in the early hours of this morning, and is expected to raise interest rates three times next year, Yellen said that the rate hike is a vote of confidence in the economy, and the dollar index rose further after the interest rate announcement, now trading around
102.
38.
In addition, US industrial production fell 0.
4% month-on-month in November, a larger-than-expected decline as utility output fell sharply and manufacturing output fell
.
In terms of industries, China's refined copper production in November was 720,000 tons, a slight decrease of 2.
31% month-on-month and a year-on-year decline of 2.
7%, but slightly higher than the average output of 711,400 tons
during the year.
From January to November this year, China's cumulative output of refined copper was 7.
68 million tons, an increase of 420,000 tons or 5.
79% year-on-year, hitting a new high level in the same period of the previous year, indicating that the domestic refined copper supply pressure is still large
.
In terms of market: on December 15, Shanghai electrolytic copper spot traded a premium of 20 yuan / ton - 160 yuan / ton for the monthly contract, and the trading price of flat water copper was 46520-46750 yuan / ton
。 Shanghai copper early interval monthly price difference is still maintained around 250 yuan / ton, some downstream before the month to increase the amount of receipts, the transaction was once active, but after entering the second trading session, the next month price spread fluctuated sharply, the market transaction was blocked, the holder's price mentality weakened, began to gradually reduce the quotation, downstream receipt increased, the transaction first rose and then suppressed, the market believes that the quotation after tomorrow's month change will remain between 50 yuan / ton - 100 yuan / ton
.
During the day, the Shanghai copper 1702 contract rose slightly to 46790 yuan / ton, still continuing to fluctuate at a high level, highlighting the increase in the risk of its high pullback, while the Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points as scheduled, stimulating the US dollar index to rise strongly, partially increasing the resistance
to copper prices.
It is recommended that the Shanghai copper 1702 contract can be cautiously held below 47500 yuan, and if it breaks, it will decisively stop the loss and exit the market
.
