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Today's Shanghai copper main contract 1611 contract fell into a high oscillation sorting, the operating range is 37500-37190 yuan / ton, the end of the day stabilized to 37300 yuan / ton, slightly up 0.
05% from yesterday's closing price, back to the level of a month ago, but has not effectively broken through the upper M60, that is, 37350 yuan / ton resistance
.
In terms of term structure, the copper market showed a positive arrangement of near-low, far-high, and the positive price difference between the Shanghai copper 1610 contract and the 1611 contract narrowed to 20 yuan / ton, indicating that the willingness of forward contracts to rise weakened
.
Externally: Asian market London copper oscillation declined, of which 3 months London copper slightly fell 0.
24% to 4769 US dollars / ton, the current London copper running at the intersection of M60 and M200 moving average, the shock trend has not been reversed, the upper rebound resistance focus on 4800 US dollars / ton
.
In terms of positions, on September 19, the position of London copper was 330,000 lots, down 5,580 lots from the 16th, and funds continued to flee the copper market, indicating that bulls have little
confidence in going long.
Macro: The Asian dollar index rushed higher and retreated, indicating that the upper selling pressure was heavier, and it is now trading around
95.
9.
The BOJ left interest rates unchanged at -0.
1%, indicating a climb in the BOJ's fears of negative interest rates, or suggesting further validation
of the global liquidity inflection point.
The September Fed interest rate meeting will be announced in the early hours of tomorrow morning, and the current rate hike expectations are weak
.
In terms of information: China's exports of unwrought copper and copper products in August were 57,265 tons, more than 4 times higher than the same period last year, increasing the market's supply concerns
about the copper market.
Market: On September 21, Shanghai electrolytic copper spot reported a premium of 80-120 yuan / ton, and the transaction price of flat water copper was 37310-37350 yuan / ton
.
Copper fluctuated in Shanghai, and copper premium continued to maintain stability
.
Traders continued to buy and deliver long orders on the dip, which made the cost-effective flat water copper quotation firmer
.
Cargo holders are active in cashing, but they also strive to take care of the premium state
.
Although the freight rate of domestic logistics has increased due to industry norms, the zero order market delivery is mainly picked up by buyers, and the impact is relatively small, and downstream purchases
continue to be on-demand.
Today's Shanghai copper 1611 contract oscillation stabilized to 37300 yuan / ton, because the Federal Reserve interest rate meeting is about to be announced, long and short trading is cautious, mainly to reduce positions and leave the market, especially London copper position reduction is large
.
However, at the same time, due to the strong rise of other commodities, especially ferrous metals, the market investment sentiment
was partially improved.
It is recommended that the Shanghai copper 1611 contract can be cautiously long above 36,800 yuan, with a target of 38,000 yuan / ton
.
