Shanghai copper fell back adjustment but strong resilience to fall

Macro, the preliminary value of the Eurozone December manufacturing PMI was 45.
90, lower than the previous value and less than expected, the UK 12 manufacturing PMI 47.
40, two consecutive months of decline, the United States December ISM manufacturing PMI recorded 47.
2, lower than the previous value of 0.
9 percentage points, lower than the expected value of 1.
8 percentage points, from the December manufacturing PMI data of major European and American countries, the global economic downward pressure is still large
。 China's official manufacturing PMI in December was 50.
2, exceeding expectations by 0.
7 percentage points, ranking above the boom-bust line for two consecutive months, and China's economy is still in a phased stabilization and recovery during the period of increasing counter-cyclical adjustment

Fundamentals: From the perspective of industry fundamentals, as of January 10, the SMM copper concentrate index was reported at $59.
36/ton, up $1.
19/ton
from last week.
The CSPT group determined at the Fuzhou meeting at the end of the month that the TC floor price in the first quarter of next year was 67 US dollars / ton, only up 1 US dollar / ton from the fourth quarter of this year, and the tight supply of raw materials has not been alleviated, coupled with the current low inventory, the support force of copper price decentralization is still strong; On the consumer side, the spot market is affected by the Spring Festival, trading is light, and the current price is fluctuating at a high level, and the wait-and-see mood is strong
.
From the perspective of terminal consumption, the year-on-year decline in power grid investment in November has narrowed, but there is still a big gap from the annual investment target, and the investment completion amount is less than expected; The completed area and newly started area of the real estate market continued to converge, and the overall consumption was slowly
recovering.

On the whole, due to the escalation of the situation in the United States and Iran at the beginning of this week, the market risk aversion rose sharply, gold prices reached a new high, and copper prices came under pressure; Subsequently, the leaders of the two sides did not take further measures to deteriorate relations, and copper prices rebounded after bottoming out, remaining high and volatile
.
From a macro level, Sino-US trade relations have improved in stages, and the first phase of trade agreements is expected to be signed next week, but the US non-farm payrolls data is less than expected, Brexit is not as smooth as expected, and there is still pressure above copper prices, but from the perspective of industrial fundamentals, the supply of raw materials is still tight, the current inventory is low, and the support for copper prices is relatively strong, and although it is close to the Spring Festival, the spot market trading tends to be cold, but the good expectations for the recovery of consumption after the year also support the price center of gravity upward.
It is expected that copper prices will remain high at 48500-49500 yuan / ton, and you can go long
on the dip.