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On Monday (January 23), the main contract of Shanghai copper 1703 rose steadily, closing at 46850 yuan / ton at the end of the day, up 430 points, or 0.
93%, from the settlement price of the previous trading day, with a position of 178494 lots, a daily reduction of 2466 lots, and a volume of 240234
.
In terms of term structure, the copper market maintained a positive arrangement of near-low, far-high, and the positive price difference between the Shanghai copper 1702 contract and the 1703 contract remained at 100 yuan / ton
.
In terms of external trading: Asian Copper rushed high and oscillated, resonating
with the trend of Shanghai copper.
Three-month copper rose as high as $5,850/mt
.
In terms of positions, on January 19, the position of London copper was 341,000 lots, a daily decrease of 1,881 lots, and the sharp reduction of London copper rose sharply, indicating that it was open long and flat, and the continued upward momentum was doubtful
.
Macro: As the new US President Trump did not convey any effective information on fiscal policy in his inaugural speech and stated that he would implement protectionist policies, the Asian dollar index extended its decline today and is now trading around
100.
3.
In addition, in December 2016, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 6.
0% year-on-year, down 0.
2 percentage points from November, and the added value of mining industry decreased by 2.
5%
year-on-year.
In terms of industries, data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that China's refined copper production fell 3.
3% year-on-year to 756,000 tons in December 2016, and refined copper production for the whole year of 2016 increased by 6% year-on-year to 8.
44 million tons
.
In terms of market: Shanghai electrolytic copper spot contract reported a discount of 150 yuan / ton - 50 yuan / ton, flat water copper trading price of 46700 yuan / ton - 46880 yuan / ton, premium copper trading price of 46750 yuan / ton 46950 yuan / ton
.
Shanghai copper rebounded more than 500 yuan / ton, most of the market enterprises into a semi-vacation state, a small number of enterprises in the morning market quotation once firm, but with the scarcity of copper transactions, the discount of copper quotations gradually expanded, until the level after last week, the participation of middlemen declined, downstream sporadic procurement, the transaction was general
.
During the day, the Shanghai copper 1703 contract reduced its position to the upside
.
Fundamentally, near the Spring Festival, downstream demand is weak, and upstream producers have entered a semi-holiday state; LME London copper stocks ended a 20-session losing streak, rebounding to 275,400 tonnes
.
Technically, Shanghai copper is stable at the 20-day moving average support level, backed by 46130 yuan / ton; However, intraday positions continue to decline, and the probability of continuing the uptrend is unlikely
.
Operationally, it is recommended that the Shanghai copper 1703 contract sell high and sell low in the range of 46000-47000, with a stop loss of 500 yuan / ton
each.
