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On Tuesday, the main 2104 contract of Shanghai copper continued to rise, with the highest 59,800 yuan / ton and the lowest 58,850 yuan / ton during the day, and the closing price was 59,660 yuan / ton, up 1.
36% from the closing price of the previous trading day; In the external market, LME copper rose slightly, as of 15:00 Beijing time, the three-month London copper was reported at $8104.
5 / ton, up 0.
38%
on the day.
Market focus: (1) Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius and colleagues estimate that the size of the new stimulus package is expected to reach $1.
5 trillion, up from their previous forecast of $1.
1 trillion
.
They also raised their forecast for GDP growth in the second quarter to 11 percent
.
(2) SMM China's electrolytic copper output in January was 798,300 tons, down 7.
39% month-on-month and up 9.
97% year-on-year; It is expected that the output in February will be 812,000 tons, an increase of 1.
71% month-on-month and 18.
86%
year-on-year.
Spot analysis: On February 9, spot 1# electrolytic copper was quoted at 59300-59460 yuan / ton, with an average price of 59380 yuan / ton, a daily increase of 465 yuan / ton
.
The festive atmosphere is strong, there is basically no consumption downstream, and the transaction is weak
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai copper warehouse receipts totaled 34,216 tons on Tuesday, an increase of 600 tons per day; On February 8, LME copper stocks were 74,575 tonnes, down 1,975 tonnes
per day.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai copper main 2104 contract were 60635 lots, a daily increase of 5493 lots, short positions were 63324 lots, a daily increase of 4828 lots, a net short position of 2689 lots, a daily decrease of 665 lots, both long and short increases, and the net space decreased
.
Market research and judgment: Shanghai copper 2104 continued to rise on February 9
.
The US dollar index came under pressure on the US dollar index to the downside due to the release of the January non-farm payrolls data in the United States that fell short of expectations, and the expectations of further stimulus plans in the United States strengthened; The recent decline in new global coronavirus cases is positive for risk sentiment
.
Domestic copper mine supply maintained a tight pattern, copper ore processing fees TC continued to be reduced, and copper smelting costs were high; At present, domestic copper inventories are at a historical low, and the market is optimistic about post-holiday demand expectations, supporting the low recovery of copper prices, Shanghai copper 2104 contract daily MACD low golden cross, mainstream bulls increase positions, is expected to be short-term strong adjustment
.
