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Shanghai copper bottomed out this week, and spot copper rose nearly 1,000 yuan
during the week.
The hawkish attitude of the Federal Reserve landed, coupled with the determination of the number of reserves sold by the National Reserve Bank in the first round, the Shanghai copper market rebounded
sharply.
At present, Shanghai copper is still in the off-season of consumption, the Fed's hawkish tightening liquidity and green energy copper demand exist at the same time, superimposed domestic suppression operations still exist, the overall momentum of Shanghai copper is limited, but there are still some bulls enthusiastic to support the short-term rebound, and the market long and short divergence is large
.
Copper prices bottomed out this week, and as of 3 pm on Friday, the main 2108 contract of Shanghai copper was at 68,700 yuan, a weekly increase of 2.
14% or 1440 points
.
The main logic of this round of rebound is that the short-term news surface is bearish, and the bearish surface is less than expected
.
On Friday, Fed Bullard announced that it would meet to discuss tapering bond purchases, U.
S.
stocks fell that night, the dollar index soared, copper prices fell below the 67,000 support level, the hawkish tone was consolidated, but in this week's congressional hearing, Powell said that it will still "fully support the economy until the US economic recovery", the dovish atmosphere is obvious, suppressing the market's previous expectations, the dollar stopped rising, liquidity tightening expectations short-term negative performance for copper prices
.
The first batch of national reserves was determined, of which copper was 20,000 tons, and it lasted until the end of the year on average only 120,000 tons, which obviously did not meet market expectations compared to the previous market estimate of a total reserve of nearly 2 million tons, so the actual negative impact has been digested
in advance.
Looking forward to the third quarter, with the strong recovery of the economy, liquidity tightening sooner or later, fundamental TC continues to rise, the tight supply side situation improves, and the country enters the traditional off-season, the dumping will affect the rhythm of the previous period of destocking, it is difficult to provide a large rebound momentum, so the copper price trend maintains a bearish expectation, and the recent repair rebound after entering the over-fall, next week or maintain a period of shock trend, the upper pressure level focuses on the integer level around
70,000.
In terms of the market, spot copper rose by 1,010 yuan this week, and the premium was steadily lowered with the rebound of the plate, and the good copper premium was 40 yuan
.
Monday's panic decline, the market bearish sentiment is heavier, and after Tuesday stabilized, the intention to buy the market on the dip is high, trading has improved significantly, and the subsequent continuous rise market has remained relatively stable, and off-season consumption limits the transaction strength, just need to stock is more common
.
In terms of import profit and loss, the hawkish tone of the Fed loosened, the dollar index stopped rising and falling this week, the yuan did not change much, the import window continued to close, and expanded to around
500 yuan / ton.
