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On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai copper 1804 bottomed out, closing at 51710 yuan / ton at the end of the day, intraday trading at 51900-50920 yuan / ton, up 0.
29% per day, the performance of stagnation in London copper, currently barely running above the 200-day moving average, indicating that the upper selling pressure is still heavy, short-term downside risks remain.
In terms of term structure, the positive price difference between the Shanghai copper 1803 contract and the 1804 contract widened to 190 yuan / ton
.
In the external market, Asian Lun copper stopped falling and rebounded, of which the 3-month London copper traded at 6889-6786 US dollars / ton intraday, and is now trading at 6864 US dollars / ton, up 1.
69% on the day, but London copper is still running below the main moving average group, indicating that the downside risk remains
.
In terms of positions, on February 8, the position of London copper was 326,000 lots, a daily decrease of 3,491 lots, indicating that the decline in copper prices has gradually caused funds to gradually flee the copper market
.
In terms of the market, on February 12, Shanghai electrolytic copper spot traded at a discount of 190 yuan / ton - 120 yuan / ton for the monthly contract, and the transaction price of flat water copper was 51130-51200 yuan / ton
.
On the first trading day after the month before the holiday, the market continued to discount quotations, good copper morning market quotations 120 yuan / ton, flat water copper discount 170 yuan / ton, lack of attention
.
In the second section, in order to quickly reduce the discount of copper to 150-140 yuan / ton, flat water copper and transfer discount of 190-180 yuan / ton, a small number of traders to prepare for the reserve after the holiday, buy at the dip, only a few downstream into the market to replenish, the market transaction is light
.
On the macro front, the Asian dollar index fell under pressure and is now trading around
90.
At present, the market is focused on Trump's explanation of the details of his $1.
5 trillion infrastructure plan on February 12, US time, and market investment sentiment has been partially boosted
.
Industry information, Bank of America Merrill Lynch raised the average copper price estimate in 2018 by 11% to 7275 US dollars / ton, because it is expected that the global copper market supply risk will still exist in 2018, the annual supply growth rate will be 2.
9%, and the demand growth rate will be reduced from 2.
7% in 2017 to 2.
1%, but there will still be a gap
of 213,000 tons of supply and demand throughout the year.
During the day, the Shanghai copper 1804 contract rebounded to 51710 yuan / ton, but still ran below the main moving average group, indicating that short-term bears have the advantage
.
Pay attention to the details
of Trump's infrastructure plan.
It is recommended that the Shanghai copper 1804 contract can sell high and low in the range of 51300-52500 yuan / ton, and the stop loss is 500 yuan / ton
each.
