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On Wednesday, the main contract of Shanghai copper 1703 bottomed out, cutting part of the intraday decline, closing at 46600 yuan / ton, down 0.
38% on the day, up 1.
46% from the intraday low of 45930 yuan / ton, the current Shanghai copper fell back to the average intertwined operation, but still far above M60, the rebound resistance is concerned about 47500 yuan / ton
.
In terms of term structure, the copper market maintained a positive arrangement of near low and far high, and the positive price difference between the Shanghai copper 1702 contract and the 1703 contract narrowed to 120 yuan / ton, indicating that the willingness of forward contracts to rise weakened
.
Externally: Asian London copper fluctuated in a narrow range around 5770 US dollars / ton, of which 3-month London copper slightly fell 0.
06% to 5773 US dollars / ton, but still effectively stabilized above the main moving average group, and the upward pattern maintained well
.
In terms of positions, on January 16, the position of London copper was 359,000 lots, a slight decrease of 1,249 lots per day, and in recent weeks, the position of London copper has increased and decreased, indicating that long and short trading has been repeated
.
Macro: The dollar index tumbled 1.
25% to around 100.
3 on Tuesday, and the Asian dollar index rebounded slightly to around 100.
6 as Trump complained that the dollar was too strong and the British withdrawal was clear, and the pound rebounded
strongly against the dollar.
In terms of industry, Kazakhstan's refined copper production in 2016 increased by 3.
1% year-on-year to 406,802 tons
, according to data released by Kazakhstan's Statistics Commission.
In terms of market: on January 19, Shanghai electrolytic copper spot traded at a discount of 150 yuan / ton - 50 yuan / ton for the current month's contract, and the transaction price of flat water copper was 46050-46270 yuan / ton
.
Based on the obvious increase in downstream receipts in the previous day, the holders have shipped at a high price, the current copper discount has narrowed, the proportion of good copper is less, the narrowing is particularly obvious, but the wet copper brand is not interested, there is still no sign of narrowing, and flat water copper to open the price difference, flat water copper brand price difference is large, the current month's source and the next month's source to maintain a price difference of 20-30 yuan / ton, speculators operate less, downstream bargain hunting into the market, the volume of receiving increased, the transaction improved
.
Shanghai copper 1703 contract closed under pressure to 46600 yuan / ton, in addition to external factors, copper prices continued to rise, bulls high profit taking demand also increased significantly, but because of the short-term rise pattern remains, the pullback should not be too bearish
.
In terms of operation, it is recommended that the Shanghai copper 1703 contract can be backed by 45900 yuan / ton above the dip, the entry reference is 46400 yuan, and the target is 47500 yuan / ton
.
