Shanghai aluminum's main force is weak and volatile and continues to pay attention to coal prices in the near future

Market focus: (1) RUSAL: The company's primary aluminum production in the third quarter of 2021 was 943,000 tons
.
Primary aluminum sales volume was 915,000 tons, down 11.
8% month-on-month; Alumina production in the third quarter was roughly flat year-on-year at 2.
064 million tons, and bauxite production was 3.
792 million tons, an increase of 1.
1%
month-on-month.
(2) As of November 1, according to Mysteel statistics, China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 1.
002 million tons, an increase of 17,000 tons from last Thursday (October 28), and 669,000 tons
in the same period last year.

Spot analysis: SMM spot A00 aluminum reported 20220-20260 yuan / ton, the average price was 20240 yuan / ton, up 40 yuan
from the previous trading day.
The cargo holder actively shipped, the receiver demand was general, the transaction was poor, and the overall transaction was average
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipt 136541 tons, daily increase of 1556 tons; LME aluminum stocks were 1,042,800 tons, a daily decrease of 8,550 tons
.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of the main 2112 contract of Shanghai aluminum held 141164 lots, minus 3850 lots per day, short positions 142512 lots, daily decrease of 2951 lots, net short positions of 1348 lots, daily increase of 899 lots, long and short reduction, net short increase
.

This week will see the Fed, Bank of England and RBA interest rate meetings, which are expected to announce tapering and expectations that the Fed will start raising interest rates in the middle of next year
.
Domestic policies to ensure supply and price stability continued to exert pressure, coal fell sharply, and market risk sentiment continued to be suppressed
.
Fundamentals, the domestic main production areas continue to limit production and power, smelter profits are under pressure, and the overall supply of the aluminum market is still tight
.
However, electrolytic aluminum is still in stock, mainly due to the early weather conditions, resulting in the concentrated arrival of goods in the production area
.
However, downstream sentiment has improved, but the overall transaction performance is relatively average
.
In the near future, we will continue to pay attention to coal prices, and if coal prices stop falling and stabilize, Shanghai aluminum is expected to stop falling and rise
in the short term.