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Today's Shanghai aluminum 1612 contract oscillated higher, rising to 12785 yuan / ton at the end of the day, up 0.
51% per day, at present, Shanghai aluminum is still effectively stabilized above the moving average group, the technical form is stronger than other non-ferrous metals
.
At the same time, the term structure of the aluminum market maintained a negative arrangement of near high and far low, and the negative spread between Shanghai aluminum 1611 and 1612 contracts narrowed to 225 yuan / ton, indicating that the willingness of forward contracts to rise has risen
.
Externally: Asian Lun aluminum continued to fall under pressure, of which 3-month Lun aluminum rose slightly by 0.
42% to 1673 US dollars / ton, fell to the lower edge of the oscillation range for more than two weeks, short-term Lun aluminum RSI indicator rose to the overbought area, need to be vigilant against technical correction needs, short-term operating range attention to 1710-1650 US dollars / ton, Lun aluminum performance is weaker than Shanghai aluminum
.
On the macro front: The Asian dollar index is under pressure and is now trading near 97.
7, but remains close to the seven-month high set this week
.
In September, China added 1.
22 trillion yuan in new renminbi loans, higher than expected and prior, but the M2 money supply increased by 11.
5% year-on-year, slightly lower than expected, and M1 growth rose to 24.
7%, and the spread between the two further widened
.
This week, the market is focused on China's third-quarter GDP on Wednesday, and expectations are now widely divided
.
Aluminum industry information, China's primary aluminum production in September climbed 6.
5% year-on-year to 2.
7 million tons, due to the restart of production, primary aluminum production in October may further increase to 2.
8 million tons
.
In terms of market: on October 18, Shanghai aluminum trading concentrated 13230-13240 yuan / ton, the monthly premium was 260-280 yuan / ton, Wuxi transaction concentrated 13220-13230 yuan / ton, Hangzhou transaction concentrated 13230-13250 yuan / ton
.
On the first day after the change of month, the spot returned to high premium, the shipment of the holder maintained stability, the middleman mainly received the downstream, worried about the subsequent spot price decline, the willingness to replenish the stock is still more cautious, the downstream on-demand procurement, the receiving volume is relatively stable, and the overall transaction is more stable
.
The Shanghai aluminum 1612 contract stabilized to 12,785 yuan / ton during the day, and the Shanghai aluminum rebound pattern remained good, partly boosted by the fall of the dollar index from its high, but this week's aluminum price trend will also depend on the performance
of a series of economic data from China on Wednesday.
In operation, it is recommended that the Shanghai-aluminum 1612 contract can sell high and low between 12850-12650 yuan, and the stop loss is 100 yuan / ton
each.
