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Today's Shanghai aluminum main month 2108 contract, opening 18980 yuan / ton, the highest intraday 19075 yuan / ton, the lowest 18760 yuan / ton, settlement 18825 yuan / ton, the end of the close to 18895 yuan / ton, up 70 yuan
.
Today's Shanghai aluminum trend is volatile, although it has entered the consumption off-season, but the supply side still cannot recover quickly in the short term; Coupled with the import window or closure, the gap between supply and demand still exists
throughout the year.
In the external market, today's Lun aluminum fluctuated at a low level, and the LME was reported at 2491 US dollars / ton at 15:02 Beijing time for three months, down 4 US dollars, or 0.
14%,
from the settlement price of the previous trading day.
In terms of the market, today's spot trading price of Yangtze River is 18800-18840 yuan / ton, up 40 yuan; Guangdong South Reserve reported 18930-18990 yuan / ton, up 40 yuan; Hua reported 18860-18900 yuan / ton, up 60 yuan
.
Holders have reduced prices and sold goods, receiving parties are waiting to buy on demand, the market transaction is not good, and the transaction activity is average
.
On the supply side, domestic production in May 2021 was 3.
36 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 10.
7%, including the closure of the import window of molten aluminum from the tank extracted from Yunnan's reduced production, and the import volume weakened
.
The Yunnan area has reduced production by more than 800,000 tons, and it is expected to return after July, while delaying the planned commissioning of new production capacity, resulting in an annual output reduction of about
500,000 tons.
The rumors of dumping went further, extending to the end of 2021, with monthly shocks abating
.
On the demand side, the off-season gradually emerged, and the operating rate of leading enterprises fell slightly, and there was a further downward trend
.
In terms of inventory, social stocks fell by 16,000 tons month-on-month to 874,000 tons, and on the basis of the effect of Yunnan's production reduction, the speed of destocking was significantly narrowed, highlighting the signs of a month-on-month decline in downstream consumption
.
Overall, the impact of reserve dumping and macro policies has faded, although the supply in Yunnan is recovering, but the progress is slow, even if the reserve dumping provides some supplements, but the gap between supply and demand is still there, and the fundamental support is strong
.
In addition, near the end of the month, China's carbon trading market is about to be officially listed, although the electrolytic aluminum industry is temporarily not included in the scope of trading, but the carbon trading price or give a certain guiding role, affecting the market's expectations for aluminum smelting costs, it is expected that aluminum prices will continue to maintain high volatility
.