Shanghai aluminum short-term volatility is strong, the market reception situation is not good

Market focus: (1) At 2:00 Beijing time on Thursday, the Federal Reserve will announce its monetary policy decision in July; At 2:30, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will hold a press conference
.
(2) In June, the prosperity index of China's aluminum smelting industry was 17.
1, up 0.
8 points from the previous month; the leading synthesis index was 63.
3, up 3.
1 points
from the previous month.

Spot analysis: On July 29, spot A00 aluminum was reported at 14760-14800 yuan / ton, with an average price of 14780 yuan / ton, a daily increase of 110 yuan / ton
.
Spot is weak and difficult to change, large households purchase normally, futures fell slightly, the second period of aluminum stopped falling and rebounded, a small decline at the end of the afternoon, spot price adjustment is large, but still mainly discounted, the market reception situation is not good
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 96,645 tons on Wednesday, a daily decrease of 951 tons, a drop of 9 consecutive days; On July 28, LME aluminum stocks were 1658175 tons, a daily decrease of 10,325 tons
.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2009 contract are 68073 lots, a daily increase of 7321 lots, short positions of 90684 lots, a daily increase of 11121 lots, a net short position of 22611 lots, a daily increase of 3800 lots, long and short increases, and net space increases
.

Market research and judgment: On July 29, the main force of Shanghai aluminum in 2009 fluctuated up
.
The worsening pandemic in the United States and the deterioration of Sino-US relations have led to heightened concerns about the economic outlook; At the same time, the expansion of domestic electrolytic aluminum production profits will stimulate the further release of production capacity; And the import profit window remained open, stimulating the import supply of overseas sources, and the pressure on aluminum prices increased
.
However, domestic downstream demand continues to perform well, procurement willingness is still good, Shanghai aluminum inventory continues to fall, and the inventory in the plant continues to degrade, which has a strong
support for aluminum prices.
In terms of spot, large households purchase normally, spot goods are mainly discounted, and the market reception situation is not good
.
Technically, the main 2009 contract of Shanghai aluminum increased its position, and the daily MACD indicator golden cross, it is expected that the short-term volatility is strong
.
Operationally, it is recommended to go long around 14450 yuan / ton, and the stop loss is 14360 yuan / ton
.