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On Wednesday, the main 2103 contract of Shanghai aluminum opened high and fluctuated, with the highest 14930 yuan / ton and the lowest 14825 yuan / ton within the day, closing at 14885 yuan / ton, up 0.
27% from the closing price of the previous trading day; In the external market, LME aluminum fell slightly, as of 15:00 Beijing time, 3-month Lun aluminum was reported at 2016.
5 US dollars / ton, down 0.
32%
on a daily basis.
Market focus: (1) The IMF expects the global economy to grow by 5.
5% in 2021, 0.
3 percentage points
higher than its October forecast.
(2) At 3:00 a.
m.
Beijing time on Thursday, the Fed will announce its interest rate decision
.
Markets expect the Fed to likely maintain its dovish policy stance, reiterating support for fiscal stimulus, acknowledging that inflation expectations have picked up but have not yet reached worrying levels
.
Spot analysis: On January 27, spot A00 aluminum reported 14890-14930 yuan / ton, the average price was 14910 yuan / ton, down 50 yuan / ton
per day.
Holders have shipped goods, demand has not improved significantly, large households are generally enthusiastic about receiving goods, and the transaction situation is not satisfactory
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 76,714 tons on Wednesday, a daily decrease of 495 tons, down 7 consecutive days; On January 26, LME aluminum stocks were 1419775 tons, down 156 tons
per day.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2103 contract 100541 lots, a daily increase of 676 lots, a daily increase of 114833 short positions, a daily increase of 2041 lots, a net short position of 14292 lots, a daily decrease of 1365 lots, both long and short increases, and net space decreases
.
At the end of the year, downstream demand turned weak, and spot premiums weakened, making aluminum prices lack upward momentum
.
However, the recent closure of the import arbitrage window has inhibited the inflow of overseas goods, and the market transaction has improved slightly due to the decline in aluminum prices, and the recent decline in Shanghai aluminum inventories has stabilized from the low
.
Technically, the main 2103 contract of Shanghai aluminum has a large divergence between long and short, facing the resistance of the 20-day moving average, and it is expected to adjust short-term shocks
.
