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On Tuesday, the main 2109 contract of Shanghai aluminum was running strongly, with the highest 20575 yuan / ton, the lowest 20135 yuan / ton, and the close at 20515 yuan / ton, up 1.
33% from the closing price of the previous trading day; LME aluminum fluctuated to the upside, as of 15:00 Beijing time, 3-month Lun aluminum was reported at $2631 / ton, up 0.
99%
from the previous session.
Market focus: (1) As of August 16, according to Mysteel statistics, China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 754,000 tons, an increase of 16,000 tons from last Thursday (12th), and 750,000 tons
in the same period last year 。 (2) NDRC spokesperson Meng Wei said at a regular press conference in August held on Tuesday that the NDRC recently issued the "Barometer of the Completion of Dual Control Targets for Energy Consumption in Each Region in the First Half of 2021", which requires that the 9 provinces (regions) where the energy intensity does not decrease but rises, and the prefectures and prefectures under their jurisdiction that do not decrease but increase the energy intensity of the prefectures, cities and prefectures, suspend the energy-saving review of the "two highs" projects other than the major projects planned and laid out by the state this year, and urge all localities to take effective measures.
Ensure the completion of the annual energy consumption dual control target, especially the energy intensity reduction target task
.
Spot analysis: SMM spot A00 aluminum reported 20210-20250 yuan / ton, the average price was 20230 yuan / ton, down 20 yuan
per day.
The willingness of the holder to raise the price is general, the receiver is mainly purchasing on demand, the enthusiasm of the large household to receive the goods is general, and the overall transaction is light
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 92,063 tons, an increase of 821 tons per day; LME stocks were 1322150 tonnes, an increase of 9,200 tonnes
per day.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2109 contract held 146366 lots, with a daily increase of 2549 lots, short positions of 141634 lots, a daily decrease of 2291 lots, a net long position of 4732 lots, a daily increase of 3995 lots
.
Long and net increase, short decrease
.
Market Judgment: The market is currently waiting for the latest minutes of the Fed's meeting on Wednesday, especially its view
on tapering bond purchases.
The press conference of the National Development and Reform Commission in the morning released a series of important signals affecting the market, including keywords such as "dual control", "carbon reduction", "power limiting" and "two highs", which had a certain boost to aluminum prices
.
On the supply side, Australia's largest aluminum smelter is facing the risk of production reduction, and the main production area in the southwest of China continues to reduce production, and the supply disturbance of the aluminum market is repeated.
In addition, the current aluminum market has a small accumulation of inventory, the main reason for the lack of warehouse is concentrated arrival, it is expected that the accumulation is only temporary, the impact is relatively limited
.
The "Golden Nine Silver Ten" consumption season is coming, the demand for replenishment of processing enterprises has increased, and under the change of supply and demand pattern, short-term aluminum prices may run
strongly.
