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Shanghai aluminum short-term or rally is gratifying, still need to be wary of the risk of fallback

 Last Update: 2022-12-24
 Source: Internet
 Author: User

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As of the close of 3 p.
m.
, the main 2203 contract of Shanghai aluminum closed up at 21950, up 440, or 2.
05%.

After the aluminum price gradually stabilized the 20,000 mark this month, it gradually climbed
under the support of supply and demand and inventory.

Shanghai aluminum

In terms of macro, with Indonesia's announcement of the suspension of bauxite exports and the turmoil on the Russian-Ukrainian border, the supply of Russian aluminum may also be disturbed, and the supply side of the aluminum market will tighten again under the comprehensive impact, and the tight balance between supply and demand may continue, promoting the upward trend of aluminum prices; In addition, the Fed's short-term interest rate remains unchanged, which is relatively in line with market expectations, short-term market risk aversion fades, and aluminum prices gradually recover
.

Domestically, the year is approaching, upstream and downstream consumption are not performing well, social inventory destocking is not smooth, the fundamentals actually support aluminum prices are limited, in addition, the state will continue to control coal prices, and it is difficult to have a qualitative breakthrough
in the short term of aluminum prices under the cost side restrictions.

On the whole, under the combined effect of macro and fundamentals, aluminum prices in February may maintain a trend of first rising and then falling, short-term or gratifying, but the medium and long-term still need to be vigilant against the risk of falling, the overall fluctuation range of Shanghai aluminum can pay attention to 21200-23000
.

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