Shanghai aluminum short-term is expected to remain stable and volatile

Last week, Lun Aluminum rebounded at a low level, and the overall oscillation between $2330-2465 was dominant
.
At the beginning of the week, the market was affected by the fall of the US dollar, China introduced policies to support the real estate industry, Lun aluminum rebounded at a low level, up more than 3% on the day, but then the market rally failed to last, the natural gas tension problem once again caused market panic, the plate temporarily stagnated, but then Russia released a signal that it will release the natural gas pipeline, market sentiment has been repaired, Lun aluminum shock rebounded, technically, the plate stood above the 20-day moving average pressure, the trend was better than last week, the weekly cumulative increase of more than 4%.

In terms of the market, aluminum prices stopped falling and rebounded, but downstream enterprises suffered from weak demand and lack of confidence in the future market, and there was still no obvious stockpiling phenomenon, and traders were still enthusiastic about entering the market, driving some market transactions
.

East China: The market panic has cooled down, coupled with the previous aluminum price continued to decline, some electrolytic aluminum companies have little profit left, cost support, aluminum prices in the week ushered in a wave of rebound market, the center of gravity moved up obviously, as of Friday, East China spot aluminum prices between 17970-18010 yuan / ton, up 570 yuan / ton, the current spot is basically in a flat water state
.

South China: As of Friday, the price of Foshan Nanhai aluminum ingot with tickets is between 18140-18240 yuan / ton, up 560 yuan / ton from the previous month, East China South China aluminum ingot price difference is 200 yuan / ton, the South China market is still in the off-season consumption as a whole, downstream enterprises just need to replenish the warehouse
.

On the macro level, some officials said that the Fed raised interest rates by 100 basis points at the end of July to indicate that the game was aggressive, and the market panic eased, and Shanghai aluminum rose on the day, rising by more than 3% during the day, and stood above the 5-day moving average.
Once broke through the 18,000 mark, rose to the weekly high of 18315, but the high pressure is greater, the upper 20-day moving average is under pressure, and the risk of the European energy crisis has surged again, the market still has doubts about the probability of raising interest rates by 75-100 basis points, so the overall market trend is unstable, failed to effectively stand above 18,000, the second half of the week is hovering around this position, next week's Fed interest rate meeting results multi-plate guidance, and pay attention to whether the 18,000 position can effectively stand, Shanghai aluminum or around 1.
75-18,400 oscillation
。