Shanghai aluminum shock fell slightly, and the market's willingness to hold prices heated up

Market focus: (1) A number of Fed officials, including the president of the Atlanta Fed and the president of the Dallas Fed, predicted that the US economy can recover strongly in the second half of the year, and it is possible
to reduce the scale of bond purchases in 2021.

Spot analysis: On January 12, spot A00 aluminum was reported at 15030-15070 yuan / ton, with an average price of 15050 yuan / ton, down 350 yuan / ton
per day.
Changjiang Nonferrous Metal reported that the holders were willing to sell at a high price, the trading situation was not good, the enthusiasm of large households to receive goods was average, and the transaction activity was weak
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 74,353 tons on Tuesday, a daily increase of 9,773 tons; On January 11, LME aluminum stocks were 1305825 tons, down 3,275 tons per day, down for 12 consecutive days
.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2103 contract were 72478 lots, a daily increase of 1704 lots, short positions were 93359 lots, a daily increase of 694 lots, a net short position of 20881 lots, a daily decrease of 1010 lots, both long and short increases, and the net space decreased
.

Market research and judgment: On January 12, Shanghai aluminum 2103 volatility fell
slightly.
A number of Fed officials predict that the US economy will recover strongly in the second half of the year, and the scale of bond purchases built in 2021 is possible, which will support the US dollar; However, optimistic expectations for economic growth have eased market concerns
about the global epidemic.
At present, the high production profits of aluminum enterprises will stimulate the accelerated launch of electrolytic aluminum production capacity; The prevention and control of air pollution in the north in winter led to the suspension of production by some aluminum companies, as well as the weakening of downstream demand at the end of the year, and the domestic aluminum market inventory entered the accumulation cycle, and the performance of aluminum prices was weak
.
However, the continuous dematerialization of aluminum inventories and the closure of the import arbitrage window will inhibit the inflow of overseas goods, and the price of aluminum will fall, and the willingness of the market to hold prices is heating up, which is conducive to the stabilization
of aluminum prices.
Technically, the mainstream long position of the main 2103 contract of Shanghai aluminum increased its position slightly, paying attention to the pressure of the 10-day moving average, and it is expected to stabilize and fluctuate
in the short term.