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On Monday, the Shanghai aluminum 1610 contract rushed back down, closing at 12345 yuan / ton at the end of the day, down 0.
2% from yesterday's closing price, and the current Shanghai aluminum is still stable above M60, that is, 12300 yuan / ton
.
At the same time, the term structure of the aluminum market turned to a negative arrangement of near high and far low, and the negative price difference between Shanghai aluminum 1610 and 1611 contracts slightly widened to 75 yuan / ton
.
External: last Friday night market London aluminum around 1645 US dollars / ton wide oscillation, of which 3-month Lun aluminum slightly rose 0.
21% to 1647 US dollars / ton, performance weaker than zinc, the LME market closed on Monday, short-term London aluminum rebound resistance still continue to focus on 1710 US dollars / ton, the lower support focus on 1630 US dollars / ton
.
Macro: The Asian dollar index oscillated slightly, extending the gains in Friday's night market, and is now trading around 95.
67, increasing the pressure
on base metals.
The US real GDP in the second quarter rose by 1.
1% annualized as expected after revision
.
The market is currently focused on China's August manufacturing PMI on Thursday, and expectations are bearish
.
In terms of aluminum market information, Fitch has recently maintained its price forecast for aluminum and aluminum unchanged from its January 2016 estimate
.
Aluminum prices are expected to remain at $1,600 per tonne in 2016 and $1,700 per tonne in 2017 and 2018
.
In terms of market: on August 27, Shanghai aluminum trading concentrated 12770-12780 yuan / ton, the monthly premium was 200-220 yuan / ton, Wuxi transaction concentration was 12770-12790 yuan / ton, Hangzhou transaction concentration was 12830-12850 yuan / ton
.
Holders are actively shipping at high prices, and the supply of goods in circulation in Shanghai has increased, so the spot price in Shanghai is slightly lower than that in Wuxi, the willingness of middlemen to receive goods is slightly hesitant, and downstream enterprises are waiting and seeing, and the overall transaction is suppressed
compared with last Friday.
The Shanghai aluminum 1610 contract fell back to 12345 yuan / ton during the day, indicating that there was some selling pressure
above.
However, Shanghai aluminum is still running above the moving average group, and it should not be too bearish
in the short term.
It is recommended that the Shanghai aluminum 1610 contract can be cautiously held above 12230 yuan / ton, and the target is 12500 yuan / ton
.