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On Friday, Shanghai aluminum rushed back down
.
Last week, the social stock of aluminum ingots fell by another 25,000 tons to 620,000 tons
.
At present, there is no sign of weakening downstream, inventory will hit a new low in the year, long-term negotiation node spot price willingness is strong, and it is expected that the Shanghai aluminum back structure will continue for a long time
.
At present, the spot aluminum price is already high, and the profit of aluminum exceeds 2500 yuan, and it is recommended to gradually lock in profits
.
At the macro level, the new crown vaccine has made significant progress, the global economic outlook may undergo a major improvement, coupled with the result of Biden's victory in the US election is basically settled, and some macro data performance is acceptable, macro market sentiment tends to be optimistic
.
In terms of supply, the price of alumina at the cost end continues to be low, the price of aluminum continues to rise, the profit margin of aluminum enterprises continues to increase, production capacity continues to be released, and the supply pressure of electrolytic aluminum is not reduced
.
In terms of demand, entering November, the consumption side has not weakened rapidly, the current aluminum ingot social inventory is in a state of continuous decline, and the inventory base hit a new low in the year, coupled with the current increase in orders for automobiles and home appliances and other industries, consumption basically tends to be stable, the current performance is not light
in the off-season.
On the whole, under the background of the current low inventory of aluminum ingot social inventory, there is a risk of soft squeeze in the near-month contract, and in the short term, aluminum prices will still run strongly, but over time, the rhythm of supply and demand will weaken the momentum of aluminum prices.
