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Yesterday, the nonferrous metal overall strengthened, and the Shanghai aluminum rushed back down
during the session.
In terms of fundamentals, the domestic social stock has gradually recovered to more than 600,000 tons recently, showing a bottoming out
.
In the short term, the overall inventory level of the market is still low, but from the end of the year to the first quarter of next year, consumption is likely to cool down, and inventories are expected to gradually increase, in addition, the medium-term supply increase trend is also worth paying attention to
.
It is expected that aluminum prices will face adjustment in the short term, and the operation will be
dominated by high test shorts.
At the macro level, major economies began to promote vaccines, and the intensity and effect of promotion entered the observation period, and the impact was relatively neutral
.
In terms of spot, the mainstream spot trading price in Shanghai, Wuxi and Hangzhou markets was concentrated between 15670-15710 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan / ton, and 60-100 yuan / ton
.
Fundamentally, domestic electrolytic aluminum output in December has been fixed, and imported goods have arrived in Hong Kong in late December to become incremental adjustment
.
In the later period, with the inflow of goods and the weakening of downstream consumption, short-term accumulation is fulfilling this logic, and Shanghai aluminum is mainly
weak pullback.
From a medium-term perspective, the long-term new production landing is lower than expected, and the high base of consumption in 2020 guarantees the total long-term consumption, which greatly eases the long-term supply pressure, and the medium-term aluminum price turns to a volatile view
.
