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On Monday, the main 2104 contract of Shanghai aluminum rushed back to the high, with the highest 17830 yuan / ton and the lowest 17245 yuan / ton within the day, closing at 17650 yuan / ton, up 1.
96% from the closing price of the previous trading day; In the external market, LME aluminum opened high, as of 15:00 Beijing time, 3-month Lun aluminum was reported at 2189.
5 US dollars / ton, up 0.
83% per day.
Market focus: (1) Goldman Sachs expects the US full-year GDP to increase by 8.
0% in 2021, further higher than the previous forecast of 7.
0%, while the US unemployment rate outlook is also further revised
downward.
(2) The Development and Reform Commission of Baotou City, Inner Mongolia, notified that in order to ensure the completion of the dual control target of energy consumption in the first quarter, the red warning response measures
for dual control of energy consumption were formulated.
Among them, it involves Baotou Aluminum Co.
, Ltd.
reducing electricity consumption by 150 million kWh and Dongfang Hope Baotou Rare Earth Aluminum Industry reducing electricity consumption by 150 million kWh
.
Spot analysis: On March 15, spot A00 aluminum was reported at 17600-17640 yuan / ton, with an average price of 17620 yuan / ton, a daily increase of 250 yuan / ton
.
Changjiang Nonferrous Metal reported that the holders shipped a lot, the enthusiasm of large households to receive goods was average, and the transaction activity was acceptable
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: the total number of Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts on Monday was 160250 tons, an increase of 3170 tons per day; On March 12, LME aluminum stocks were 1923025 tons, an increase of 314,350 tons
per day.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2104 contract 152401 lots, a daily increase of 15248 lots, short positions of 158144 lots, a daily increase of 15879 lots, a net short position of 5743 lots, a daily increase of 631 lots, long and short increases, net space increases
.
Market research and judgment: On March 15, Shanghai aluminum 2104 rushed to the high pullback
.
US President Joe Biden officially signed the 1.
9 trillion stimulus plan, and the Federal Reserve continued to ease policy, which boosted market risk sentiment, but rising expectations of US economic growth and inflation strengthened US bond yields and the US dollar
.
Domestic aluminum production profits remained high, electrolytic aluminum production capacity continued to increase, but the speed of production slowed down, and Inner Mongolia Baotou energy consumption dual control policy, shut down part of the electrolytic aluminum production capacity
.
And the recent inventory growth rate has shown signs of slowing down, coupled with the downstream demand season is gradually coming, the demand outlook is optimistic, and the support for aluminum prices has been strengthened
.
Technically, the main 2105 contract of Shanghai aluminum increased its position on the line, paying attention to the 10-day moving average support, and it is expected that the market will be volatile in
the future.
