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During the National Day period, Shanghai Aluminum AL2011 continued to repair its recent decline, opening with an upward jump and opening high, and then maintaining a narrow range
.
The opening price on the first day after the holiday was 14235 yuan, the highest intraday was 14585 yuan, the lowest was 14230 yuan, to the close of 14485 yuan, and the night trading continued to rise 85 yuan, or 0.
59%.
The Shanghai-London ratio narrowed to 7.
629
.
Macro aspect: During the National Day Mid-Autumn Festival, macro disturbances occurred frequently during the National Day, and US President Trump was infected with new crown pneumonia; The pandemic continues to rage in Europe, with the dollar index weakening, supporting higher commodity prices
.
On the supply side: aluminum enterprises have steadily released production capacity, Yunnan Hongtai has been powered on since early September, and the Weiqiao Yunnan project has also begun to be put into operation recently, production capacity has accelerated, the operating rate of electrolytic aluminum continues to rise, and there is a loose trend
on the supply side.
Cost side: The cost of alumina rose to 12,910 yuan, and the profit margin narrowed
.
In terms of premium discount: the domestic Yangtze River nonferrous spot premium was significantly lowered to 210 yuan / ton, and the discount range of Lun aluminum was expanded to 36 US dollars; In terms of inventory: LME stocks fell by 6,750 tons to 1,416,300 tons, and the previous inventory increased by 4,784 tons to 227,900 tons, and the social library fell by 35,000 tons to 662,000 tons according to the data on September 28, and the low inventory strongly supported the rebound
of aluminum prices.
Overall, in terms of raw materials, alumina prices bottomed out, the current profit margin of the electrolytic aluminum industry narrowed, the demand side, the domestic spot premium is still strong, the market sentiment is more cautious, the holders are mainly dumping, the demand is general, has entered the September consumption season, but the demand has not met expectations, the overall performance is relatively weak
.
The overseas epidemic has been repeated, and there is uncertainty
about the economic impact of the epidemic.
From the perspective of the future market, the supply side has accelerated with the resumption of production by aluminum enterprises, and the production capacity of the supply side has been further released, while the downstream start has remained stable, and the demand side has not been guided by the consumption season, and the consumption performance has not met expectations
.
It is expected that the short-term aluminum price trend will be mainly range-bound
.
