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As of 3 p.
m.
, the main 2006 contract of Shanghai aluminum closed up at 12410, up 390, or 3.
24%.
On the macro front, the global epidemic is showing signs of slowing down, Zhong Nanshan said that the global epidemic inflection point is still early, and it may still take two weeks; The US stock earnings season is coming, and the market risk aversion is rising; The central bank's one-year MLF rate was lowered by 20 basis points to 2.
95%, with a significant rate cut; The United States filed for 5.
5 million jobless claims last week, down sharply from the previous value; Trump announced plans
to restart the economy.
This week's destocking range is eye-catching, down 112,000 tons week-on-week, unwrought aluminum and aluminum products in March were 518,600 tons, a new high since May 2019, and down 5% year-on-year, the bright performance of exports was actually affected by the January-February holiday and the epidemic, and some export orders were postponed to
March.
The scope of supply-side smelter shutdowns has expanded, and the production reduction level has been determined to exceed 600,000 tons, and there are still 400,000 tons of intentional production reductions, and the supply has further narrowed
.
Near-term supply and demand both ends are good, but the continued weakening of alumina prices actually gives electrolytic aluminum smelting a larger profit margin, the subsequent willingness to reduce production or weakened, and the unexpected performance of destocking has a certain subjective interference, and the subsequent decline in export orders is more certain, so aluminum prices have not yet come out of the weak situation, downward pressure is still there, need to be cautious and short.
Benefiting from the stimulus policy, the sentiment of the domestic consumer market has heated up, and the market's expectation of RRR reduction continued to ferment during the week, the volume of shipments in many places improved month-on-month, and the fundamentals of aluminum prices were repaired; However, the current overseas epidemic-inflection point has not yet appeared, aluminum prices in the short term are still stable and small rise trend, Shanghai aluminum main contract temporarily concerned about 1.
24-12,500 around the oscillation, or is expected to break through the 12,500 pressure level, operationally recommended to buy a small amount on demand, is expected next week spot aluminum slightly rise
.
