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Shanghai aluminum fluctuated
in a narrow range on Friday night.
Recently, the fundamental changes in the aluminum market have been limited, the inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods has decreased slightly, and the inventory at the end of the year still has room to decline but it is difficult to return to the low level
.
Market sentiment is constantly disturbed by macro factors, short-term Shanghai aluminum trend is not strong, the position declined, still the previous operating range shock treatment
.
On the macro front, the Sino-US economic cycle has staggered, showing a pattern
of internal loosening and external tightening.
China Song: The Premier said that he should formulate policies based on the needs of market entities, use a variety of monetary tools, reduce the RRR in a timely manner, and increase support for the real economy, especially micro, small and medium-sized enterprises, to ensure the smooth and healthy operation
of the economy.
U.
S.
Tight: Therefore, it is appropriate to consider ending tapering months ahead of schedule, Powell said, and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to discuss accelerating tapering at its next monetary policy meeting on December 14 and 15
.
In terms of demand, the overall transaction is flat, but photovoltaic orders are very hot, the production line is in full production, which is completely different from building profiles, and the recent favorable real estate policies are gradually released, looking forward to the subsequent improvement of building profiles
.
The China Index Research Institute predicts that the sales area of commercial housing may decline by about 6.
8% to 8.
3% in 2022, falling to about
1.
6 billion square meters.
On the supply side, in terms of electrolytic aluminum, the preliminary value of China's primary aluminum production in November 2021 was 3.
1128 million tons, down 2.
64% year-on-year and 3.
08% month-on-month; The daily output of primary aluminum was 103,800 tons, up 0.
15%
from the previous month.
The reduction in production was mainly concentrated in Yunnan, Qinghai, Chongqing and other regions, while the resumption of production was mainly concentrated in Inner Mongolia, Yunnan, Henan, Shanxi and other places, and the resumption of production of some enterprises in Yunnan was relatively slow
.
In terms of alumina, environmental protection inspectors will restrict the production of alumina enterprises in some parts of the north, coupled with the response to heavy pollution weather warnings and energy consumption policies in some areas, the operating rate of alumina enterprises may decline significantly in the short term, resulting in a decrease
in supply.
Overall, the current contradiction between supply and demand is not obvious, aluminum prices as a whole maintain volatility, and it is difficult for supply to recover significantly in December, while downstream stockpiling + macro policy release support signals have led to a marginal warming of demand, and there is support
below aluminum prices.
It is technically recommended to pay attention to the 18500 support, the upper focus on the 19200-19400 pressure, if it does not fall, you may choose to go
up.
