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On Friday, the main force of Shanghai aluminum in the morning opened at 12560 yuan / ton, the early bulls entered positively, pulled up Shanghai aluminum continuous exploration, successively broke through the 5/10 daily moving average resistance, the high recorded 12695 yuan / ton, then the average pressure is greater, short-term bulls took profits, Shanghai aluminum fell back, the afternoon long flat into Shanghai aluminum continued to give up the morning gains, the end of the session long and short interaction exit, Shanghai aluminum shock closed at 12630 yuan / ton
.
Spot premiums continue to remain high, the short-term solution of transportation problems is unlikely, both long and short sides are currently more wait-and-see, short-term operations are mainly, and Shanghai aluminum is expected to maintain volatility
.
In terms of the external market, Lun aluminum opened at 1616 US dollars / ton in the morning, and the Asian session Lun aluminum basically followed the trend of Shanghai aluminum, slightly higher to touch 1626 US dollars / ton after falling back to the daily average near the narrow range, entering the European trading session, Lun aluminum continued to slightly down, and then stabilized at 1615.
5 US dollars / ton line, the evening data surface is light, it is expected that Lun aluminum narrow range
.
On the macro front, the National Bureau of Statistics released the changes in residential sales prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities in September 2016
.
The data shows that housing prices in first-tier cities and hot second-tier cities continued to soar in September, but in the first two weeks of October, first-tier cities and some hotspot second-tier cities cooled
significantly.
Compared with August, a total of 63 cities increased the price of new commercial housing in September 2016 month-on-month, with prices falling in one city and one city remaining flat
.
The property market data is better, which suppresses the decline in non-ferrous prices
.
However, under the weight of a strong US dollar, base metals are unlikely to perform
well.
In terms of the market, the spot trading volume in Shanghai in the morning was 13360-13380 yuan / ton, the monthly premium of aluminum was 420~440 yuan / ton, the transaction in Wuxi was 13360~13370 yuan / ton, and the transaction in Hangzhou was 13330~13350 yuan / ton, the overall market transaction in East China tends to be active, and the intraday market release is relatively small, and the downstream demand for replenishment before the weekend increases, and the market receiving sentiment is stronger, thereby pushing up the spot premium on the basis of yesterday again
。 Although the futures market is expected to pick up next week, the current downstream processing enterprises are still mainly on demand under their own low inventory, so that holders have the initiative to adjust prices, and spot premiums will remain high in the short term
.
In the afternoon, the market quotation in Wuxi was still concentrated at about 13360 yuan / ton, and a small number of transactions were made
.
In the short term, aluminum supply is still tight, social inventory continues to decline, coupled with alumina and coal prices remain high, aluminum prices below the support is strong, while 283 enterprises in Henan Province are facing shutdown, including 96 foundry enterprises, aluminum supply is facing pressure again, supporting aluminum prices
upward.
In terms of technology, the main force of Shanghai aluminum is supported by the 20-day moving average, but the MACD white line narrows, the upside is limited, and the Lun aluminum KDJ bears are arranged, but there are still supports below, and the short-term aluminum price shock is warm
.
