Shanghai aluminum main shock pullback The rebound in production has put pressure on aluminum prices

Market focus: (1) The ISM manufacturing PMI in the United States recorded 52.
6 in June, compared with 49.
7 and 43.
1 expected and the previous value, respectively, returning above
the boom-bust line for the first time since January.
(2) SMM data, on July 2, the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory fell by 03,000 tons from the previous Wednesday to 719,000 tons, and the weekly decline narrowed
.

Spot analysis: On July 2, spot A00 aluminum was reported at 14400-14440 yuan / ton, with an average price of 14420 yuan / ton, a daily increase of 60 yuan / ton
.
A large household within the day East China procurement plan of more than 10,000 tons, normal quotation, the carrier shipment is still more active, the willingness of the middleman to receive the goods is relatively poor, the buyer and seller trading is poor, obviously less than the beginning of
June.
Downstream intraday on-demand purchase, because aluminum prices have risen for several consecutive days, considering that their own orders have weakened and some of the previous stockpiles, the recent buying is not high
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 90,328 tons on Thursday, an increase of 603 tons per day; On July 1, LME aluminum stocks were 138,300 tons, a daily decrease of 4,300 tons
.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2008 contract are 99105 lots, minus 1445 lots per day, short positions are 121603 lots, daily increase of 1180 lots, net short positions are 22498 lots, daily increase of 2625 lots, more short increases, net space increases
.

Market research and judgment: On July 2, the main force of Shanghai aluminum 2008 shock pullback
.
The global epidemic situation is still not optimistic, and the increasingly tense relationship between Canada and China and the United States has caused market concerns; At the same time, the aluminum import window continues to open, and the supply of imported sources increases; In addition, the profit recovery of electrolytic aluminum production has stimulated the gradual recovery of domestic electrolytic aluminum production, putting pressure
on aluminum prices.
However, domestic downstream demand continues to perform strongly, driving Shanghai aluminum inventories to continue to degrade, short-term supply tightness continues, aluminum prices still have upward momentum
.
In terms of spot, a large household plans to purchase more than 10,000 tons of East China within the day, and the shippers are still relatively active, the willingness of middlemen to receive goods is relatively poor, and the downstream intraday on-demand procurement is the mainstay
.
Technically, the mainstream short position reduction of the main 2008 contract of Shanghai aluminum is large, testing the resistance of the 14000 mark, and the short-term shock is expected to be strong
.
In operation, it is recommended that the Shanghai-aluminum 2008 contract can be long around 13920 yuan / ton, and the stop loss is 13850 yuan / ton
.