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On Monday (January 23), after six trading days of fierce long-short games, the Shanghai aluminum 1703 contract rose sharply during the day, but the interest in holding positions did not increase but decreased
.
The end of the day closed at 13690 yuan / ton, up 310 yuan / ton from the previous trading day's settlement price, or 2.
32%
per day.
At the same time, the positive price difference between Shanghai-aluminum 1702 and 1703 contracts widened to 70 yuan / ton, indicating that the forward contract has increased its willingness to rise
.
External: Asian Lun aluminum upward oscillation, hovering around 1858 US dollars / ton, of which 3 months Lun aluminum slightly fell 0.
6% to 1856 US dollars / ton, the current Lun aluminum average shows a long arrangement, has become a rising trend, MACD red energy column has continued to amplify signs, indicating that the upward momentum is still there, the market has a high probability of continuing to rise
.
Macro: As the new US President Trump did not convey any effective information on fiscal policy in his inaugural speech and stated that he would implement protectionist policies, the dollar index in Geneva extended its decline and is now trading around
100.
3.
According to data released by the International Aluminum Association (IAI), the total global (excluding China) primary aluminum production in December was 2.
173 million tons, up from 2.
115 million tons
in November.
Market: On January 23, the Shanghai transaction concentration was 13530-13540 yuan / ton, the discount for the month was 170-160 yuan / ton, the Wuxi transaction concentration was 13500-13520 yuan / ton, and the Hangzhou transaction concentration was 13500-13540 yuan / ton
.
Smelters are still relatively reluctant to sell, approaching the end of the year, more than half of the traders have been on holiday, the market trading is light, the downstream stocking has been basically completed, the market supply and demand are light, and the overall transaction in the East China market is not good
during the day.
The Shanghai aluminum 1703 contract rose
sharply during the day.
Fundamentally, approaching the Spring Festival, market supply and demand are weak; LME aluminum stocks remained stable at 2.
3 million tonnes; Compared with copper and nickel, the recent performance of aluminum prices is strong and has a good resistance to decline
.
On the technical side, the length of the MACD red energy column is not as long as the volatile market of previous days, and the position does not increase but falls, indicating that the rise or the main guidance is caused
.
In operation, it is recommended that the Shanghai aluminum 1703 contract be short at the high, enter the market for reference 13800 yuan / ton, and stop loss 14000 yuan / ton
.
