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On Friday, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 14290 yuan / ton in the morning, the aluminum price fluctuated around the 5/10 daily line before the afternoon, first rising and then suppressing, in the afternoon driven by the sharp rise in the black series, more into the short flat, Shanghai aluminum steadily probed, the high touched 14390 yuan / ton, closed at 14365 yuan / ton, Shanghai aluminum index position decreased by 4938 hands to 788420 lots, of which the contract of the month sharply reduced positions, Shanghai aluminum 1805 contract positions increased by 15464 hands to 247068 lots, In the expectation of the arrival of the entire consumption season, destocking can be expected, and aluminum prices are expected to stop falling and rebound in the medium term, but in the short term, we need to pay attention to the strength of the resistance of the upper 20-day line
.
In terms of the external market, in the morning, Lun aluminum opened at 2184.
5 US dollars / ton, during the Asian session, Lun aluminum around the daily moving average oscillation, up test 20/5 daily moving average resistance, the high slightly touched 2196 US dollars / ton, into the European trading session, Lun aluminum high fell sharply, the low fell below the 10-day moving average support recorded 2171.
5 US dollars / ton, in the low ratio stimulated by China's aluminum exports continued to improve, Lun aluminum to a certain extent weaker than Shanghai aluminum, short-term reverse hedging position holding
.
In terms of the market, before the afternoon, Shanghai trading concentrated 13970-13980 yuan / ton, the discount for the month was 230-220 yuan / ton, Wuxi transaction concentrated 13970-13980 yuan / ton, Hangzhou transaction concentrated 13950-13970 yuan / ton
.
Aluminum is rising, spot discount still has room to narrow, and the shipment strength of holders is still convergent, but compared with the previous day's willingness to ship, middlemen for downstream delivery, and the price difference has profit margins, positive willingness to receive goods, spot prices have rebounded at a low level, downstream enterprises are willing to replenish, the overall transaction is more positive, and the supply is tight
.
In the late afternoon, aluminum rose in the month, and the trading price in the East China market was 14020-14030 yuan / ton
.
In terms of news, China's supply-side reform has a far-reaching impact on the global aluminum industry, Guofa Industry (2017) No.
656 document has realized the suspension of more than 10 million tons of electrolytic aluminum production capacity in China, and the domestic aluminum price has also risen from 12,000 yuan / ton in early 2017 to a maximum of more than 17,000 yuan / ton
.
However, Weiqiao Group, as the world's largest supplier of electrolytic aluminum, was exempted from the heating season limit in the fourth quarter of 2017, which made the domestic alumina electrolytic aluminum production limit significantly less than expected, and the aluminum price fell back to 14,000 yuan / ton
.
Entering the first quarter of 2018, the domestic aluminum market gradually digested the bearish after the expected around 14500-15000 yuan / ton range oscillation, and in the overseas aluminum supply and demand relative shortage and dollar depreciation against the dollar under the background of the external aluminum price trend is stronger, the market long and short sides on the future aluminum price after the market divergence, China's supply-side reform and environmental protection policy follow-up promotion has once again become the focus of the market, considering that the cyclical product policy dividend is still there, aluminum prices short-term resistance is strong, the shock momentum after the market can still look higher
.
