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Today's Shanghai aluminum 1704 contract went down unilaterally, closing at 14065 yuan / ton at the end of the day, down 355 yuan / ton from yesterday's settlement price, a daily decline of 2.
46%, the decline expanded significantly, hitting a new low since November 29 last year, while the position decreased by 2404 lots, and the trading volume was 364188 lots
.
In terms of futures structure, the aluminum market maintained a positive arrangement of near low and far high, and the regular price of Shanghai aluminum 1703 and 1704 contracts shrank to 85 yuan / ton, indicating that the willingness of forward contracts to resist decline has weakened
.
In terms of external trading: Yashi Lun aluminum has been unilaterally downward, and the lowest 3-month Lun aluminum fell to 1879.
93 US dollars / ton, and is now trading around 1883.
5 US dollars / ton, which is worse than other base metals
.
On February 15, Lun Aluminum held 697,000 lots and reduced its position by 2,756 lots, and the continued pullback of the reduction showed that the bears frequently entered the market, and the bulls were forced to leave
.
Macro: The Asian dollar index traded sideways, rising as high as 100.
59 and now trading at 100.
52
.
In addition, the total number of housing starts in the United States in January and the annualized monthly rate of housing starts in January were both lower than the previous reading, while the total number of construction permits in the United States increased slightly in January, reflecting the fair situation in the US housing market
.
Aluminum industry information, Rusal said that its production in 2016 increased by 1% from the previous year to 3.
685 million tons, and is expected to remain stable in 2017; in 2016, global aluminum demand increased by 5.
5% from the previous year to 59.
7 million tons, and global aluminum supply increased by 3.
6% to 59 million tons
.
In terms of market: on February 17, Shanghai spot aluminum trading concentrated 13930-13950 yuan / ton, the month discount of 220-170 yuan / ton, spot price adjustment speed is slower than the decline rate of futures aluminum, resulting in the narrowing of spot discount, Wuxi transaction concentration of 13890-13940 yuan / ton, Hangzhou transaction concentration of 13970-13990 yuan / ton
.
Aluminum futures fell for two consecutive days during the trading concentration period, the panic of holders is increasing, the willingness to cash is getting stronger and stronger, the circulation of goods is extremely sufficient, traders only receive goods downstream, downstream enterprises take advantage of the appropriate amount of goods, and the overall transaction shows an oversupply pattern
.
The midday decline of the Shanghai aluminum 1704 contract amplified, and the weak trend was second only to Shanghai lead
.
The early performance of Shanghai aluminum tends to be stable, and the resistance to decline is strong; However, today's performance is bearish, indicating that on the one hand, the overall market is driven downward; On the other hand, the market has not released obvious bullish news recently, and the early rise is too fast, and the corresponding pullback balance
is required.
In operation, it is recommended that Shanghai aluminum sell high and low in the range of 14000-14500, and the stop loss is 200 yuan / ton
each.
