Shanghai aluminum gets support and the probability of stopping the decline and rising increases

In terms of external trading, on Thursday morning, Lun aluminum opened at 1712 US dollars / ton, the Asian session basically followed the domestic Shanghai aluminum trend, at the beginning of the session slightly low touched the 40-day moving average, then opened a slow upward trend, the high touched 1719 US dollars / ton, into the European trading session base metal trend is generally weak, the center of gravity of London aluminum trading also gradually fell, the low touched 1707 US dollars / ton, and then quickly rebounded above the daily moving average, as of 17:13 Lun aluminum 1713.
5 US dollars / ton, Paying attention to the ECB's interest rate decision and Draghi's press conference speech, it is expected that Lun Aluminum will continue to test the resistance of the 5-day moving average and the trend is strong
.

In terms of the market, the aluminum period stepped diving before noon of the month
.
Shanghai transaction concentration is 13240-13260 yuan / ton, the discount for the month is 70-50 yuan / ton, Wuxi transaction concentration is 13200-13250 yuan / ton, Hangzhou transaction concentration is 13290-13310 yuan / ton
。 Aluminum fell by nearly 200 yuan / ton in the month, the price difference of aluminum in the next month narrowed to less than 200 yuan / ton, the shipment of holders has been controlled, the downstream enterprises and middlemen in the early stage of the transaction are actively inquiring, but the supply and demand sides show a tug-of-war, as traders enter the market to receive goods, spot transaction prices are rising, prompting downstream enterprises to no longer hesitate, the enthusiasm for receiving goods has improved, and the overall transaction has warmed
up compared with yesterday 。 In the late afternoon, aluminum rose to 13370 yuan / ton after the high level of shock, the holders were bullish on tomorrow's price, showing the phenomenon of reluctance to sell, the quotation was raised with the market, the noon and afternoon transactions were concentrated at 13280-13320 yuan / ton, the middlemen were willing to receive goods at low prices, but the holders continued to raise the quotation, maintaining the spot discount, and the supply and demand showed a tug-of-war
.

In terms of inventory, the latest data show that as of December 8, the total social aluminum inventory in the five domestic places was 293,000 tons, an increase of 5,000 tons from last Thursday; the domestic mainstream consumption of aluminum ingot inventory continued to increase slightly, but the growth rate slowed down during the week, on the one hand, after the sharp decline in spot aluminum prices, some downstream processing enterprises took advantage of the dip to replenish the warehouse, making up for the early postponement of orders; on the other hand, the shipment volume of Shandong automobile transportation in Shandong decreased during the week, and the storage in East China decreased
.
The increase in intraday inventories was lower than expected, and the spot discount tended to stabilize, and the concerns of the entire market about the increase in aluminum supply were eased, and aluminum prices were supported
.
On the plate, Shanghai aluminum 1702 is supported at the 13,000 mark, and the probability of stopping the fall and rising in the later period increases, and a small amount of short-term participation in the rebound market
.