Shanghai aluminum generally continued the range-bound market

Overnight, Lun aluminum rose sharply to close Changyang's sharp record high of $1855.
5, and opened as low as $
1838.
5 today.
Shanghai aluminum opened slightly higher to oscillate around 14500 overnight, closing at 14485
.
Due to the strong external trend, it is expected that Shanghai aluminum may stand at 14500
today.
Considering that domestic spot supply and demand are close to balance, the trend may not be as good as the external market, and the future market may generally continue the range-bound market
.
Shanghai aluminum upper pressure 14850, lower support 14000
.

Domestic aluminum ingot stocks increased by 60,000 tons to 715,000 tons after the holiday, which was lower than the same period last year from the perspective of accumulation
.
The pace of continuous growth on the domestic supply side accelerated slightly before the holiday, and with the arrival of the fourth quarter, the new production capacity put into operation in the third quarter will release the actual output, and the resumption of production under high profits will follow, and the supply pressure is gradually increasing
.
Following the off-season, domestic demand faced macro aspects, Trump unexpectedly announced that he hoped to introduce a larger stimulus bill, and the dollar index continued to fall; After the holiday, the RMB rose sharply, and the offshore RMB rose above 6.
7
.
In terms of fundamentals, alumina remained sluggish and anode prices continued to rebound; Electrolytic aluminum production capacity accelerated to rise, Haixin Phase II, Hongtai, Zhongfu put into production; SMM aluminum ingot inventory reported 715,000 tons on the 9th, up 6 tons from last Thursday; August unwrought aluminum and aluminum imports were 430,000 tons, net imports increased, of which aluminum ingots imported 247,000 tons, and there are still 20,000-30,000 tons of aluminum ingot inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone
.

The peak season is not busy, but this "not strong" situation is relative to the previous high year-on-year growth rate, as far as the domestic demand situation in September, still maintain a year-on-year high growth, at present, from the downstream feedback, October orders have not significantly improved month-on-month, maintaining a stable state, and it is expected to maintain year-on-year growth
.

The current focus of market trading is still on demand growth, and the degree of matching between the two is crucial
as supply growth accelerates and demand grows.
Although in the medium term, the aluminum supply and demand pattern to excess to inhibit aluminum prices, but the inventory that has fallen to the low level of the year before the holiday still supports the price strongly, once the holiday returns, consumption recovery drives the warehouse, aluminum prices are still difficult to fall, so it is expected that short-term aluminum prices will continue to maintain a volatile pattern
.