Shanghai aluminum gap low opening oscillation The decline is relatively small

On the macro front, the US PCE price index increased by 6.
3% year-on-year in May, and 6.
4% was expected; The core PCE price index increased by 4.
7% year-on-year versus 4.
8%
expected.
The data fell slightly, but it was still well above the Fed's target, the market was more worried about the recession of the economic market, the three major US stock indexes all closed down overnight, and internal and external commodity futures ran
weakly.

Overseas, aluminum plants have once again experienced news of production cuts due to energy price pressure, and domestic volumes continue to be steadily increased, and the overall growth trend of the supply side is more optimistic
.
Domestically, the epidemic environment has improved, domestic demand has not shown significant signs of improvement, the operating rate has picked up but the order performance is weak
.

In terms of inventory, on June 30, 2022, the domestic electrolytic aluminum social stock was 734,000 tons, down 17,000 tons from last Thursday's inventory, down 12,000 tons during the week, and down 189,000 tons
from the end of May.
Electrolytic aluminum ingot inventories still maintain a destocking trend, but the decline has gradually slowed down
.

Although favorable policy stimulus, the current expectation of significant improvement in demand has not been fulfilled, and the recent destocking of aluminum ingot social library has slowed down, and the off-season performance is more obvious, and it is more difficult for demand recovery to have bright performance
in the context of the traditional off-season.
Although overseas is facing an energy crisis, there is no news of new production cuts, and the domestic supply side continues to recover steadily, and pressure remains
.
In the case that output continues to rise and the policy has not stimulated, aluminum prices are prone to fall and rise
.