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Shanghai aluminum high volatility in the first few days of last week, benefiting from the improvement of real estate financing data, the stock market and black led the rise on Friday led aluminum prices to rebound sharply, closing at 19350 yuan / ton on the 12th, a weekly increase of 3.
59%.
On the supply side, the interference of production restriction policy is still there, from late August to early September, Xinjiang, Guangxi and Yunnan have successively introduced policies to reduce electrolytic aluminum production, Guangxi further increased in mid-September, Guizhou encouraged electrolytic aluminum enterprises to stagger peak production in mid-to-late September, and Qinghai, Ningxia and Guizhou limited production
in October.
Inner Mongolia, Guangdong, Guangxi, Jiangsu and other places to raise the price of electricity in high-energy-consuming industries, other provinces and cities electricity prices will also be gradually raised, electrolytic aluminum comprehensive electricity price rise, alumina prices fall, the total cost of electrolytic aluminum falls, enterprises turn losses into profits, supply is relatively stable
.
On the demand side, the State Council prohibits one-size-fits-all power cuts, coupled with more pullbacks in aluminum prices, the downstream operating rate continues to rise, demand recovers, the current real estate policy is mainly stable, pessimistic expectations are repaired, real estate completion or will be good
.
In terms of stocks, social stocks decreased by 06,000 tons month-on-month to 1.
007 million tons, and stocks may turn to dematerialization
.
On the whole, many places canceled preferential electricity prices, sharply increased trading electricity prices, winter is coming, thermal coal demand is good, prices may stabilize, alumina prices fall, main auxiliary material prices rise, electrolytic aluminum costs slightly decreased, but overall maintained a high level
.
On the demand side, the relaxation of power curtailments and falling prices boosted consumption, but demand recovery was slow, considering the loosening of policies in the real estate industry, which may help aluminum prices continue to rise above cost, continue to pay attention to changes in the social treasury; In the medium and long term, the logic of supply-side reduction has not changed, and once demand stabilizes significantly, aluminum prices still have a basis for
soaring.
