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On the last trading day before the holiday, the Shanghai aluminum 1612 contract fell under pressure, weaker than Lun aluminum, and fell to 12465 yuan / ton at the end of the day, down 0.
99% from yesterday's closing price, but at present, Shanghai aluminum is still effectively stabilized above
the moving average group.
At the same time, the term structure of the aluminum market maintained a negative arrangement of near high and far low, and the negative spread between Shanghai aluminum 1611 and 1612 contracts narrowed to 195 yuan / ton, indicating that the risk of high pullback of forward contracts declined
.
Externally: Asian Aluminum is weak downward, of which 3-month Lun Aluminum slightly fell 0.
42% to 1661 US dollars / ton, effectively maintaining this week's gains, so that Lun Aluminum stabilized above the moving average group, but the short-term Lun Aluminum RSI indicator rose to the overbought area, need to be wary of technical correction needs, short-term operating range focus on 1700-1650 US dollars / ton
.
Macro: The Asian dollar index edged higher to around 95.
7 as the number of initial jobless claims in the United States was 254,000 after the quarterly adjustment last week, lower than the expected 260,000 and not below 300,000 for 82 consecutive weeks, the longest cycle since 1970, increasing the market's optimistic outlook
for the US economy.
In addition, China's Caixin manufacturing PMI rose to 50.
1% in September, a slight increase of 0.
1% month-on-month, and was above 50 for the third consecutive month, indicating that China's manufacturing industry has signs
of stabilization.
In terms of the industry, it is reported that Japan's aluminum premium in the fourth quarter was finalized at $75 / ton, down 17-19% from the third quarter, due to oversupply and weak spot premium
Market: On September 30, Shanghai aluminum trading concentrated 13430-13450 yuan / ton, the monthly premium was 590-600 yuan / ton, Wuxi transaction concentrated 13470-13490 yuan / ton, Hangzhou transaction concentrated 13480-13500 yuan / ton
.
On the last day before the holiday, due to the low inventory, the performance of the holders was calm, the spot premium remained high, the holiday was longer, the risk was not clear, the middleman did not take the initiative to prepare for the holiday, the downstream enterprises were nearing the end of stocking, and the overall transaction activity declined, showing the characteristics of
the festival.
During the day, the Shanghai aluminum 1612 contract fell under pressure to 12270 yuan / ton, indicating that there was a certain selling pressure above, but its rebound pattern remained good, and with the recent continuous decline in the previous inventory, indicating that the spot was tightening, or Shanghai aluminum remained relatively strong
.
After the holiday, the Shanghai aluminum 1612 contract may still hold more ideas, with 12000 as the dividing line
.
