Shanghai aluminum fell under pressure, and downstream demand was light

Market Focus: (1) The minutes of the Fed's meeting released on Wednesday showed that policymakers renewed their commitment to keep interest rates near zero until they believe the U.
S.
economy is on a recovery trajectory
.
(2) The WBMS monthly report shows that the global primary aluminum market has an oversupply of 709,000 tons from January to March, and 761,000 tons of oversupply in 2019
.
(3) According to data released by IAI, global primary aluminum production fell to 5.
255 million tons in April, and the output in March was revised to 5.
464 million tons
.

Spot analysis: On May 21, spot A00 aluminum was reported at 13440-13480 yuan / ton, with an average price of 13460 yuan / ton, down 20 yuan / ton
per day.
In the morning, the South China spot market inquiry received more goods, traders quoted and shipped slightly, large households purchased multiple batches, spot long orders near the end, some traders actively received goods to make up for the gap, the basis pullback space is not large, short-term or high adjustment
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 141815 tons on Thursday, a daily decrease of 20,859 tons, a continuous decline of 24 days; On May 20, LME aluminum stocks were 1466625 tons, an increase of 30,050 tons
per day.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2007 contract were 87580 lots, minus 5993 lots, short positions were 123859 lots, daily minus 2202 lots, net short positions were 36279 lots, daily increase of 3791 lots, long and short were reduced, net space increased
.

The recent holding of the Chinese People's Congress and the National People's Congress has boosted market sentiment; At present, the domestic downstream demand is strong, and the recovery of electrolytic aluminum production capacity is slow, so that the domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory continues to dematerialize, which supports aluminum prices
.
However, overseas by the epidemic impact, coupled with the high ratio of Shanghai, resulting in the suppression of aluminum exports, and the future electrolytic aluminum production capacity is expected to be released, the pressure on aluminum prices will gradually increase
.
In terms of spot, traders actively inquired in the morning, and there was a certain flow, but downstream demand was extremely light
.
Technically, the main 2007 contract of Shanghai aluminum reduced its position, and the daily KDJ dead cross signs are expected to fluctuate
in the short term.