Shanghai aluminum fell into a range shock, there is support down, upward and resistance

At present, the reduction of aluminum plant production in Yunnan is still the focus of market attention, although the market has rumors that the scale of production reduction will expand, but there is still no exact news, market sentiment is volatile, Mysteel said, if this year and even next year before the end of the dry period, Yunnan Province to maintain a large gap, on the one hand, will affect the production of electrolytic aluminum production capacity
.
At present, the 10% load reduction reported by enterprises is a preliminary policy, and if the power supply continues to be insufficient, there is a possibility
that the load reduction will continue to expand.
In the short term, the short-term supply side pressure is not large, Yunnan's lack of electricity is a fact, there have been about one million tons of production reduction, coupled with the previous Sichuan production reduction has not resumed production capacity, the overall supply and demand balance prognosis is still good, to the bottom of aluminum price support
.

The demand side has not improved significantly, although the characteristics of the traditional peak season have not yet appeared, but downstream consumption may have marginal improvement momentum
.
In addition, the aluminum ingot social library accumulated compared with last Thursday, but the overall level remained low, and the inventory of aluminum rods fell slightly, which did not
support the upward trend of aluminum prices.

At present, aluminum prices are caught in range shocks, and the shocks converge, there is support below the price, but there is also resistance
to the upside.
Therefore, the trend downward trend of aluminum prices is more difficult to appear
.
Of course, if the upside exceeds expectations, we need to see significant higher-than-expected reductions on the supply side, resulting in lower
accumulation levels at the end of the year.