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Shanghai aluminum high fell this week, the main force once soared above 19500, but at the end of the day in the collapse of energy prices combined with the weak fundamental impact of the pullback again, as of Friday's close, Shanghai aluminum main 2201 contract closed down at 18960, a weekly cumulative decline of 1.
28%.
This week, Lun aluminum showed a trend of rushing back down, rising above 2700 intraday, and as of Friday, the cumulative decline was about 0.
9%; During the week, the minutes of the Fed meeting showed that many participants called for an earlier rate hike, and many officials saw evidence of high inflation; Although Indonesia said that it will no longer export bauxite next year, which has a certain impact on global aluminum supply, it is difficult for aluminum to perform strongly under policy pressure in the short term, or weaken again, focusing on the range of 2600-2680
.
In terms of the market, the market has picked up, traders have increased their enthusiasm to enter the market, the market supply is still abundant, downstream enterprises due to weak demand in the off-season, mainly on-demand to receive goods, the transaction volume is better than last week
.
In East China, market sentiment has eased, and the Indonesian president has said that he plans to ban the export of metal raw materials in the future; This week, aluminum prices ushered in a rise in the market, returning to above 19,000 again, as of Friday, East China spot aluminum prices between 19220-19260 yuan / ton, up 710 yuan
from last Friday.
In South China, as of Friday, the price of Foshan Nanhai aluminum ingot with tickets was between 19520-19620 yuan / ton, up 490 yuan / ton from last Friday, and the increase was significantly inferior to East China
.
This week's market transaction has picked up slightly compared with last week, and downstream companies just need to stock up
.
In terms of inventory during the week, the social treasury destocked slightly, and the current cumulative inventory was 1.
01 million tons per month, but the overall inventory was still high compared with last year; Fundamentally, the market sentiment has rebounded under the moderate easing of real estate policies, but it has no actual boost effect on downstream consumption, coupled with the collapse of coal-based black energy prices, causing further collapse of the cost side, and the fundamentals have continued to weaken
.
Overall, the short-term macro good news on the price boost effect or has been exhausted, return to the fundamentals and supply and demand side, aluminum prices are weak and difficult to change, need to be vigilant against the risk of further pullback, pay attention to the range of 1.
85-19,300
.
